The United Arab Emirates has joined Saudi Arabia and Qatar in urging US President Donald Trump to avoid restarting military action against Iran and instead give diplomacy a chance, according to people familiar with the matter. The outreach reflects growing concerns among Gulf states that renewed hostilities could trigger fresh retaliation from Tehran and plunge regional economies into turmoil. In separate conversations with Trump, leaders of the three US allies argued that military action would not achieve Washington's long-standing objectives with Iran. Trump now faces mounting pressure as the conflict continues to strain the US economy and push up global energy prices following disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. While he initially vowed to destroy Iran's ballistic missile programme and hinted at regime change, the war has reportedly cost Washington tens of billions of dollars and is becoming increasingly unpopular domestically.
The UAE's position marks a notable shift for a country that had adopted a more hawkish stance toward Tehran after suffering extensive damage during the recent conflict. The UAE was frustrated when Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states refused to respond collectively with force against Iran to deter its attacks. Dina Esfandiary, an analyst at Bloomberg Economics, said the Gulf Arab states saw their worst fears come true when Iran and Tehran-backed militias in Iraq launched thousands of drones and missiles across the Gulf, killing scores of people and inflicting billions of dollars in damage to ports and energy infrastructure. "They were caught in the middle of a US-Iran war and suffered much of the fallout. They now face the prospect of renewed confrontation if the ceasefire can't be translated into a permanent deal, with their image as stable regional havens at risk," Esfandiary added. Anwar Gargash, a senior adviser to the UAE president, said there's a 50-50 chance that the region will reach an agreement with Iran. "My worry is that the Iranians have always over-negotiated. I hope they don't do that this time because the region does need a political solution. Round two of a military confrontation will only complicate things," he added.
Iran and the US agreed to a truce on April 8 and are currently exchanging messages through Pakistan over a possible peace deal. Both sides have warned they are prepared to resume hostilities if negotiations fail. However, Trump's secretary of state, Marco Rubio, on Friday said there had been 'slight progress' in negotiations, while Iranian media made similar comments. Pakistan Army chief Asim Munir was expected to visit Iran the same day, in what analysts viewed as another indication that talks were advancing. Some Gulf leaders remain uncertain whether their appeals will ultimately influence Washington and fear that Israel could still convince Trump to resume attacks on Iran. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has repeatedly indicated that further military strikes may be necessary to weaken Tehran's capabilities.
The UAE's tensions with fellow Gulf states had escalated earlier this year when Abu Dhabi decided to leave OPEC, the oil cartel led by Saudi Arabia. However, relations within the six-member Gulf Cooperation Council have since improved. All GCC members except Oman reportedly sent a letter to a global shipping watchdog rejecting Iran's attempts to permanently control maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran had effectively closed the strategic waterway at the start of the conflict, disrupting oil and natural gas exports from Gulf countries. The UAE foreign ministry reiterated that any future agreement must address Iran's 'full range of threats', including its nuclear programme, ballistic missiles, drones and 'affiliated proxies and terrorist groups'. Saudi Arabia supports mediation via Pakistan and believes getting Iran to curb its nuclear and ballistic-missile programs can only be resolved through talks. The kingdom, as well as the UAE, think the US should focus for now on getting Iran to reopen the Hormuz Strait and maintain its naval blockade of Iranian ports to force Iran into conceding on that.
Despite suffering military setbacks and the assassination of several senior commanders, Iran and its allies retain substantial offensive capabilities, analysts say. Concerns deepened after a drone attack on a UAE nuclear power plant on Sunday, which Abu Dhabi blamed on Iran-backed militias operating from Iraq. Some Gulf leaders remain uncertain whether their appeals will ultimately influence Washington and are concerned that Israel could still convince Trump to launch fresh attacks on Iran. Qatar continues to back mediation efforts led by Pakistan, with a Qatari diplomat saying Doha consistently advocates de-escalation 'for the sake of the region and its people'. A Saudi foreign ministry official referred to remarks by Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud earlier this week, in which he said the kingdom 'highly appreciates' Trump's decision 'to give diplomacy a chance to reach an acceptable agreement to end the war'. A day later, Trump said he'd spoken to Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed, and Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad and that they had dissuaded him from striking Iran.
