Indian stock markets opened significantly lower on Wednesday, with SENSEX falling 0.57% to 74,768.60 and NIFTY50 plummeting 0.68% to 23,457.30, as rising crude oil prices, higher US bond yields and fresh concerns around the Iran conflict continue to weigh on investor sentiment. GIFT Nifty futures were trading at 23,450 level, nearly 162 points lower from the previous close, indicating a negative opening for both benchmark indices. According to Aakash Shah, Technical Research Analyst at Choice Equity Broking Private Limited, Indian equity markets opened on a cautious negative note due to weak global cues. The weak opening signals come after US President Donald Trump renewed threats against Iran, saying the United States may still need to strike the country again, with Trump stating he was only an hour away from ordering an attack before deciding to postpone it.
The BSE SENSEX closed at 75,200.85 points while the NIFTY50 index ended 0.14% lower at 23,618.00 on Tuesday, according to latest reports. The indices managed to post gains despite facing headwinds from foreign investor outflows and a weaker rupee rate. However, the Nifty50 erased early gains in Tuesday's trade due to profit booking in the final hours of the session, as noted by Shah. The index remains stuck within the broader 23,300–23,800 range that has been seen over the past few sessions, with the market structure still remaining weak. The latest Wednesday opening shows continued pressure with both indices falling further from Tuesday's closing levels.
Technical indicators are signaling continued weakness in the market. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stood at 44.7, while the MACD indicator continued to show bearish signals, suggesting that buying strength in the market remains weak. Shah noted that the Nifty formed a small bearish candle with an upper wick on the daily chart, indicating hesitation and selling pressure at higher levels amid ongoing consolidation. The index continues to trade below all major moving averages, which are still trending downward. On the downside, 23,300 remains an important support level, while on the upside, the Nifty needs to move decisively above 23,800 for sentiment to improve, potentially targeting 24,000 and later 24,250 if it crosses that level.
Foreign institutional investors remained net sellers on Tuesday, with foreign investors selling Indian shares worth ₹2,457.49 crore during the session, according to provisional data. Overall, foreign investors have pulled out nearly USD 23 billion from Indian equities so far this year, already crossing last year's record outflow levels. Analysts say persistent foreign selling is one of the key reasons why Indian markets have remained under pressure in recent weeks. The banking index also remained weak, with Bank Nifty declining 0.24% and continuing to trade below important moving averages, showing pressure at higher levels and lack of strong buying support.
India VIX, which measures market volatility and is often called the fear gauge, fell 4.87% to 18.67, though it remains elevated according to Shah. The analyst noted that the VIX still needs to fall clearly below 18 for investors to regain stronger confidence in the market. The ongoing Iran war, which began in late February, has kept crude oil prices elevated, with India importing nearly 85% of its crude oil needs. Higher oil prices increase import costs, pressure the rupee and raise inflation risks for the economy. Additionally, the yield on the 30-year US Treasury bond climbed to its highest level since 2007, reflecting growing worries over inflation and global economic uncertainty, which usually attracts money into dollar assets and reduces investment flows into emerging markets such as India.
