According to CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju, Bitcoin has entered a more mature bull cycle that could deliver 3-5x gains while avoiding the extreme volatility of previous cycles. Speaking on Tuesday, Ju explained that Bitcoin's market structure has fundamentally changed as its capitalization has grown, requiring far more capital to produce the percentage gains seen in earlier cycles. His analysis shows that $697 billion of realized-cap growth has produced a 689% gain during the current cycle, compared to around $2.7 billion generating gains exceeding 55,000% during Bitcoin's early years. Ju expects this Bitcoin bull cycle to deliver 3-5x rather than another 10x+ parabolic rally, followed by a milder bear market, though his outlook remains a forecast and does not establish a specific future Bitcoin price target.
The Federal Reserve's recent monetary policy decisions are playing a crucial role in shaping Bitcoin's near-term prospects. As reported by CoinShares, the Fed raised rates by 0.25 percentage points to a range of 3.75% to 4.00% on Wednesday, marking the first increase since 2023. According to James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares, projections released with the decision also removed expected easing through 2027, creating headwinds for cryptocurrency markets. The Fed's hawkish stance, driven by persistent inflation linked to higher energy prices, reduces the chance of policy easing that could boost Bitcoin's price. CryptoQuant notes that Bitcoin's larger market and growing institutional ownership are changing the dynamics, with retail hot money that powered past cycles now giving way to patient, long-horizon capital.
The stalled CLARITY Act, which would establish comprehensive crypto market rules, continues to create uncertainty in the digital asset space. According to CoinShares, Bitcoin is shielded from regulatory setbacks due to its already settled legal status, while Ether and altcoins face greater vulnerability since much of the stablecoin payment infrastructure operates on those networks. As reported by BeInCrypto, the bill was rejected by senators in a 49-50 vote on September 15, with stablecoin issuer Circle seeing its stock fall 11% following the rejection. Bitcoin recently fell below $75,000 after the Senate failed to advance the CLARITY Act, but quickly recovered to around $80,000 despite the Federal Reserve interest rate hike, driven by renewed institutional demand.
Recent on-chain data supports CryptoQuant's mature bull cycle thesis, with Bitcoin trading around $87,100 on September 23, up roughly 14% over seven days. According to CoinGecko, Bitcoin has recovered sharply from around $75,600 on September 15 and traded above $86,000 this week, with a market capitalization near $1.75 trillion. CryptoQuant highlights several positive technical indicators, including Bitcoin's MVRV ratio remaining above one throughout this cycle, indicating holders as a whole never went underwater. The firm's PnL Index is producing less extreme cycle tops and bottoms while bottom formations are occurring at progressively higher levels of aggregate profitability. Recent data shows Bitcoin's realized capitalization added more than $4.6 billion during one week in August, with futures whales building large long positions near the recent bottom.
Increasing institutional ownership is playing a crucial role in reducing Bitcoin's cycle volatility, with U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracting $433 million on September 18 after large withdrawals earlier in the week. According to CryptoQuant, corporate treasury demand has expanded significantly, with Bernstein estimating that ETFs and corporate treasury buyers provided around $12 billion of combined Bitcoin inflows during 2026. Ju's analysis shows that "OG whales" - large early holders - have stopped selling, while futures-market whales built sizable long positions near the recent bottom. The changing holder base means that "giving up the 10x parabola also means giving up the 80% crash," as institutional participation makes another 10x move harder while reducing the likelihood of the roughly 80% bear-market collapses seen in earlier Bitcoin cycles.
