Nansen senior research analyst Nicolai Søndergaard has warned that Bitcoin's 22% monthly recovery remains unconfirmed as weak spot flows, divided whale positions, and ETF withdrawals cloud the outlook for a new bull market. According to crypto.news, positive daily and weekly trends suggest Bitcoin has moved past the weakest part of its previous decline, though more recent data have produced a less convincing picture with BTC trading below its seven-day average while short-term momentum remains weak. "The recovery is real, but spot flows haven't confirmed the bull market yet," Søndergaard stated, emphasizing that the combination of ETF withdrawals, exchange deposits, and weaker short-term momentum suggests the recovery still lacks consistent spot-flow confirmation. Bitcoin recently traded near $76,500 after retreating from levels above $81,000, with Nansen tracking about 3,700 BTC in net exchange inflows from labelled entities over the past week.
Crown has pushed back hard against September's reputation as Bitcoin's worst month, calling it a 'nothing month' with minimal price movement. According to BeInCrypto analysis, September ranks third worst on median monthly returns, behind August and December, with August carrying a median loss of 7.5% yet this August gained close to 25%. The last three Septembers all closed green at 4%, 7.4%, and 5.4% respectively. Historically, the first 16 days carry a median loss of 8.5%, pointing to roughly $71,900 if applied to August's close. After the midpoint, the median flips positive at 6.5%, tied to three events: the Federal Reserve meeting, economic data releases, and the quad witching expiry. Crown expects early weakness to reconnect Bitcoin with its weekly five-period exponential moving average at $73,294, with the odds of BTC touching that average at 71.5%.
Bitcoin has delivered its strongest August performance since 2017, gaining approximately 24.95% during the month and pushing toward its $79,108 trading level. According to SoSoValue data, US spot Bitcoin ETFs took in $3.52 billion during August, with only five of 21 sessions seeing money leave, representing a dramatic reversal from the $5.30 billion net loss across January to July. The cryptocurrency has achieved its third-quarter return of 32%, significantly outperforming the 22% losses in Q1 and 14% decline in Q2. The asset recovered from approximately $63,000 in mid-August and briefly crossed $81,500 for the first time since May, representing a substantial reversal from the pressure experienced during the first half of 2026. Bitcoin was trading around $79,108 at the time of writing, down about 0.4% over the past 24 hours, after briefly climbing above $81,000 last week before falling to a low of $76,857 following Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole address.
Large Bitcoin traders have not adopted one clear position during the recovery, with whales tracked across Nansen's monitored addresses remaining slightly net long while accounts trading large notional amounts on Hyperliquid hold heavy short exposure. According to crypto.news, funding rates remain positive but moderate, indicating that traders holding long perpetual-futures positions are paying shorts without reaching the elevated levels commonly associated with an overcrowded trade. Declining open interest shows that total derivatives exposure has contracted, while taker-flow data point to continued market selling. The combination creates conditions for a short-covering bounce because lower-timeframe momentum has already entered oversold territory, with a price increase potentially forcing bearish traders to close positions by purchasing Bitcoin, adding fuel to an advance even without an immediate increase in spot buying. Long traders face a separate risk if Bitcoin loses $76,400, which Nansen identified as an important downside level, with a break below it potentially pressure leveraged bullish positions and weaken the local-bottom case.
Jeff Ko, chief analyst at CoinEx, sees $80,000–$83,000 as a major supply zone where real capital allocation will be tested, describing it as "a point at which the rally stops being a short squeeze and becomes a test of real capital allocation." According to crypto.news, Bitcoin must hold $77,400–$77,650 before another test of the $80,000 resistance level, with a successful move through that area bringing the $80,000 level back into focus after several failed attempts to remain above it. Holding $77,100, which Bitfinex identified as an important lower-timeframe support level, alongside continued spot buying would indicate that the market remains relatively balanced. Bitfinex analysts noted that while whales took profits during the rally, institutional demand absorbed that supply, indicating that assets moving into regulated vehicles may be less prone to sudden liquidation on the basis of short-term macroeconomic news. Bitfinex also pointed to Ether ETFs as a possible gauge of demand, with U.S. spot Ether products taking in $815.7 million last week and extending their positive run to 10 sessions, while demand adjusted for the relative size of the assets was roughly four times as intense as Bitcoin ETF demand during the past week.
Despite the strong close for August, it seems like the market is bearish on September, with Bitcoin's Coinbase Premium Index turning negative again and ETF inflows turning negative in the latest recorded session, according to CryptoQuant's data. This has already triggered bearish sentiments about a potential bull trap surrounding Bitcoin's current technical setup. The timing of these macro releases coincides with the XAU/BTC ratio approaching a critical support level on the weekly timeframe, as demonstrated by the ratio bouncing off this level in mid-May as funds rotated out of Bitcoin and into gold. Should this weekly support hold firm, the resulting rotation into gold could very well see the entire crypto market fall under further selling pressure. The US 10-year Treasury yield trading near 4.80% as rising oil prices and inflation concerns pushed bond yields higher, with higher real yields increasing the return available from inflation-adjusted government debt, which can reduce demand for assets that do not generate income. Federal Reserve policy expectations have moved toward another rate increase following Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole address, with prediction-market traders raising the estimated probability of a 2026 increase to 68% after his remarks.
