Recent on-chain data suggests that Bitcoin has yet to confirm a bull market reversal, with multiple metrics indicating the bear market may not have ended. According to AMBCrypto, the MVRV ratio remains above 1.0, which historically shows aggregate holders are still in profit, and the 30-day average of long-term holder SOPR sits at 0.86 compared to the historic bar of 1.0 that reliably marks bear trend ends. The supply in profit metric stands at 57.5%, with analysts noting that the 30-day average of long-term holder SOPR must reclaim 1.0 to reliably mark the end of a bear trend. Additionally, Bitcoin's spot ETF inflow streak, the longest in nine months, was broken by a $225.1 million outflow on Thursday, July 23. As AMBCrypto reports, the data suggests that any seeming price recovery can be considered to happen within a bearish regime until these metrics climb back above historic levels and stay there for several weeks.
Coinbase Institutional Research and Glassnode have confirmed that early Bitcoin accumulation signals are emerging despite maintaining a neutral Q3 2026 outlook. According to their joint "Charting Crypto Q3 2026" report released on July 24, the researchers analyzed more than 25 charts covering onchain activity, institutional flows, macro conditions and cross-asset correlations. The report shows that Bitcoin's relationship with traditional assets has shifted dramatically, with its 90-day correlation with the S&P 500 dropping to 0.12 from 0.58 in Q4 2025, while its correlation with gold climbed to 0.57. This change suggests Bitcoin has traded less like a technology stock and more like a store of value driven by interest rates and available liquidity. As Coinbase quantitative strategist Colin Basco wrote, "With valuation compressed, we read this as the early innings of a bottoming process rather than a durable low already in place."
Bitcoin's recent price action has delivered a significant shift in market dynamics, with short-term holders now showing a loss margin of only 4% compared to the devastating -20.48% loss recorded on June 6. According to AMBCrypto, this represents one of the sharpest improvements in the metric this quarter, as Bitcoin's recovery from the July low of $57,800 to $65,777 over twenty-two days has reshaped the position of the market's newest participants. The profit and loss margin for Bitcoin short-term holders has shifted significantly, with Bitcoin's price now closing in on the group's cost basis of $68,800. This narrowing gap implies the cohort may wait a while longer simply to break even, potentially keeping a portion of recently accumulated supply off the market. The last occasion Bitcoin flipped into profitability, on April 23, 2025, preceded a run from $92,000 to an all-time high of $126,000 in October 2025, suggesting a similar trajectory may be forming now.
Bitcoin's recent price action has been characterized by unprecedented calm, with realized volatility dropping to 28.3 on July 22, down from 41.6 on June 25. As reported by CryptoQuant contributor Axel Adler Jr., this places Bitcoin in the bottom 8% of its volatility range since 2016, with roughly 92% of trading days during that period recording higher volatility. However, the most significant development is the 900 consecutive hours of selling pressure observed on Coinbase, representing the highest level of pessimism in the past two years. According to AMBCrypto, this negative Coinbase Premium suggests U.S. institutional investors are still net sellers, but the indicator has reached extreme levels that historically act as a bullish signal for Bitcoin. The current environment has led to cautious positioning among options traders, who are avoiding aggressive directional bets and instead focusing on hedging against sharp moves.
Despite recent improvements in short-term holder metrics, Bitcoin's older supply structure remains a significant headwind to any sustained recovery. According to AMBCrypto, when the price bounce began in early June, BTC older than six months spiked to 12%-16% of exchange inflows, and has since fallen to 0.8%. A cohort of holders that bought between 1 month and two years ago have their cost basis in the $72k-$102k window, creating a substantial supply overhang that could trigger another wave of selling. The supply overhang is another threat to any sustained recovery, with traders and investors preparing for the possibility of deeper capitulation that would force these holders to sell. This older supply structure, combined with the current 57.5% supply in profit and 0.86 long-term holder SOPR, suggests that Bitcoin has not yet exited its broader bearish regime and that any recovery remains vulnerable to further selling pressure.
