The Puell Multiple has reached 0.5, hovering just above the historical zone that marked five Bitcoin bottoms since 2012. According to Glassnode data, this indicator divides daily USD value of newly issued Bitcoin by its 365-day moving average, with readings below 0.5 historically signaling miner capitulation and cyclical lows. The multiple has visited this zone during major cycle lows in 2012, 2015, late 2018, mid-2020, and late 2022, coinciding with macro lows in BTC price. While the current reading suggests the final low may still be ahead, it mirrors the setup that marked the moment miners stopped selling in early 2023, with the indicator's peaks and troughs compressing from cycle to cycle as Bitcoin matures.
Long-term holder supply reached a record 16.75 million BTC on July 11, according to Galaxy Research, representing nearly 84% of the circulating supply while Bitcoin trades about 50% below its peak. This metric, defined as coins unmoved for more than 155 days, has historically pushed to new highs as bear markets deepened before cyclical bottoms formed. Recent flows support this accumulation pattern, as long-term holders flipped back to net buying on July 11 and 12. As reported by PositiveCrypto, strong hands are accumulating into weakness, with the setup showing daily miner revenue well below its 365-day average, a pattern that has always appeared at late bear market lows.
According to AMBCrypto, stablecoins saw $7.7 billion leave the market in June, marking the largest monthly contraction since the Terra-Luna collapse in May 2022. The stablecoin market cap has fallen by nearly $10 billion since May, with June posting the biggest stablecoin outflow in four years. This represents a significant shift from previous risk-off environments where capital typically rotates into traditional safe-haven assets like gold. However, gold closed May down 1.6% and June down 11.73%, while stablecoins recorded their largest monthly outflow, suggesting investors aren't simply shifting from one defensive asset to another. The divergence between stablecoin outflows and gold performance could be one of the key signals to watch this cycle.
According to reports from AMBCrypto, Bitcoin's short-term holders remain 15% underwater despite recent price movements. The cryptocurrency has shown a divergence between spot and derivatives markets throughout 2026, with the Coinbase Premium Index remaining in negative territory. The current bear cycle has lasted approximately eight months, significantly shorter than previous cycles which ran approximately 12-13 months. As per Bitwise analysis, this represents bitcoin's mildest structural bear market on record, with the current drawdown of 50% being substantially less severe than the 78% swing in 2022 and the 84% drop in 2018. Latest data from Glassnode shows Bitcoin has traded below its True Market Mean and Short-Term Holder Cost Basis for five consecutive months — one of the longest deep-value stretches in the asset's history.
On-chain models point to a possible low near $47,000, representing about 25% below the current price of approximately $62,600. According to PositiveCrypto, a decisive Puell Multiple drop below 0.5, met with rising long-term holder supply, would replicate the setup of five previous cycle bottoms. However, the indicator's shrinking amplitude adds nuance, with declining volatility each cycle suggesting a brief touch of the 0.5 boundary may prove sufficient this time. The two indicators tell a coherent story where strong hands are accumulating into weakness, but the capitulation that historically ends Bitcoin bear markets has not fully materialized. Either the Puell Multiple completes its journey into the green zone and BTC carves out a durable low, or patient accumulation absorbs remaining sell pressure first, shortening the path to recovery.
