Bitcoin traded near $81,000 on Monday, with the cryptocurrency holding above the $81,000 level despite stronger-than-expected U.S. nonfarm payroll data reducing expectations of near-term rate cuts. According to Mudrex lead quant analyst Akshat Siddhant, Bitcoin's setup remains simple with the cryptocurrency able to keep moving higher as long as price stays above the 21-period moving average. He identified $79,000 as the main short-term support, with $76,000 serving as additional protection if Bitcoin loses the first level. The technical outlook depends on Bitcoin holding its trend and avoiding a deeper move below support, with the key condition being the 21-MA remaining beneath price. However, recent analysis suggests $78,000-$79,000 represents the next key support zone, which should hold for another bounceback, with losing this zone potentially triggering deeper correction.
Bitcoin's adjusted SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) has stayed above 1 for nine straight days since May 1, according to CryptoQuant analyst Carmelo Alemán. The metric tracks whether spent BTC moved at a profit or loss, with a reading above 1 showing that sellers are realizing profits. Alemán noted that the longer streak makes the signal less noisy and shows the market has absorbed profit-taking so far, indicating sustained institutional and retail participation despite recent ETF outflows. In the past week, Bitcoin was up 0.6% while Ethereum slipped 2%, with major altcoins showing mixed performance as XRP, BNB, Solana, Tron, and Cardano rallied up to 11%* while Dogecoin and Hyperliquid were down 3.5% and 0.6%* respectively. The market sentiment remained supported by optimism around the Senate's upcoming vote on the CLARITY Act, which helped sustain buying interest over the weekend.
Goldman Sachs has pushed back its forecast for the next two Federal Reserve rate cuts to December 2026 and March 2027, as sticky inflation and energy costs continue to miss the Fed's 2% target. The revision comes as the bank expects inflation in 2026 to remain higher than the Fed's 2% target, with energy cost pass-through likely keeping core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation near 3% throughout 2026. However, with US debt interest payments surpassing $1 trillion annually and Treasury yields rising, the dollar's stability is at risk. In this environment, Bitcoin's narrative as "digital gold" gains traction, with incoming Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh recently suggesting a 5% allocation to BTC in the US Treasury's $28 trillion portfolio as an inflation hedge. The digital gold argument is becoming structural, as the US government already holds 200,000 BTC valued at approximately $16.2 billion from criminal and civil asset forfeiture proceedings, with White House crypto adviser Patrick Witt promising an update on the US Bitcoin Reserve "in the next few weeks."
Two separate bills are reshaping Bitcoin's institutional landscape: Senator Cynthia Lummis's Bitcoin Act and Representative Nick Begich's American Reserves Modernization Act both propose the U.S. buying 1 million bitcoin over five years. Polymarket currently prices a 70% probability that the Clarity Act passes this year, up from just 40% last month, representing a meaningful shift in institutional expectation. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan called the current legislative surge "a once-in-a-decade catalyst," projecting BTC could reach $150,000 by year-end if the Clarity Act passes. The Senate Banking Committee markup scheduled for May 20 and the July 4 deadline Patrick Witt described as "a tremendous birthday present for America" represent critical timelines for institutional adoption. ETF-related Bitcoin news shows a structural shift, with sovereign-level accumulation, ETF inflows absorbing liquid supply, and legislative framework that would formalize US government demand representing demand sources that didn't exist in prior cycles.
Bitcoin ETFs experienced a dramatic shift in May 2026, with $268.46 million in outflows recorded on May 7th alone, according to latest data. The previous day had seen $46.2 million in cumulative inflows, but heavy outflows from major players including Fidelity's FBTC ($129 million), BlackRock's IBIT ($98 million), and Bitwise's BITB offset most gains. The reversal came after strong early May performance, with $629.8 million in inflows on May 1st, led by BlackRock's IBIT ($284.4 million) and Fidelity's FBTC ($213.4 million). This nine-day streak of net inflows, totaling roughly $2.7 billion, represents a sustained drain on the open market, with the concentration particularly stark among BlackRock's IBIT and Fidelity's FBTC, which captured the vast majority of the flow. Looking ahead, analysts project three scenarios: a bull case where the Clarity Act clears Senate by June 15 and Bitcoin breaks decisively above $85,200 targeting $95,000–$110,000 by Q3 2026, a base case with legislation advancing but steady rates creating a $78,200–$88,500 trading range, and a bear case where inflation data re-accelerates forcing Fed hikes, potentially invalidating the entire post-February recovery structure if Bitcoin loses the $75,100 level on high volume.
