Bitcoin price fell sharply below $80,000 after the Federal Reserve maintained its hawkish stance, with Citi pushing its forecast for the first rate cut to June 2027 following the release of robust August jobs data. The 162,000 jobs added in August more than tripled economists' expectations of 53,000, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1% and labor-force participation rising 0.2 percentage point. This strong employment data has extended the timeline for lower borrowing costs by nine months, with the Fed's 10-year Treasury yield above 5.1% and the 20-year yield approaching 5.5% continuing to weigh on risk assets. The pullback follows Bitcoin's earlier decline from above $87,000 to around $83,878 amid strong US economic data showing a PMI of 58.4, the highest since July 2021. Bitcoin is currently up 43.8% from the $57.8k June low, which might be the bear cycle low, with market participants preparing for another week of macro events including August JOLTS data on September 29, PCE inflation on September 30, and September jobs report on October 2. As per CNBC TV18, the latest decline looks more like a period of caution and profit-taking than a broad crypto-market sell-off, with experts noting that the pressure is coming from higher US bond yields and rising oil prices.
The $84,000–$84,500 band now serves as the critical support level, overlapping a key Fibonacci retracement zone and the recent breakout shelf. As reported by Crypto.news, a loss of this support would target $82,193 followed by $78,571. Rekt Capital said Bitcoin was meeting resistance around $86,700 after its breakout from the previous $60,000–$80,000 range, describing the resistance as "nothing too convincing for the time being," while keeping attention on support below the market. The analyst said Bitcoin would need to remain above roughly $82,000, or successfully retest the area during a future dip, to stay positioned for bullish continuation. On the technical indicators, Bitcoin's RSI stood at 39.38 while the Money Flow Index was 37.71 on the one-hour chart, both remaining below 50 after the pullback from the $86,000–$87,000 area. The $85k area has become a local supply zone on the 4-hour chart, with the $83k area being tested as support. Failure to stay above $82,850 would likely mean a deeper retracement below $80k is possible, though a drop below $82,874 would signal a short-term bearish shift. According to CNBC TV18, experts see $84,000 as an important hurdle for Bitcoin, with $82,000 emerging as key support, while $84,000-$85,000 represents the broad resistance area identified by market analysts.
The more significant development this week involves quantum-resistant Bitcoin transactions, with costs estimated at $67 compared to $320 when StarkWare mined the first quantum-safe transaction on mainnet in August, representing a 79% reduction achieved in a single week of open optimization work. According to the report, this cost reduction came from the Quantum-Safe Bitcoin Optimization Challenge, a joint effort between StarkWare, Yukon Research, and Eigen Labs that invited developers, researchers, and AI agents to shrink the GPU-hours needed to construct the transaction.
Wallets holding 100–1,000 BTC increased their combined balance by 113,950 BTC from July 15 through September 23, reaching approximately 5.24 million BTC during the period, according to Santiment data. The cohort's holdings rose 2.22% to approximately 5.24 million BTC during this period, with the group described as one of the wallet tiers that has tracked crypto market direction closely in its five-year analysis. During the same period, Bitcoin recovered sharply from its July 1 low of $57,803, reaching $87,392 on September 21 before retreating toward $84,000. Bitfinex placed the next major cost area between $85,000 and $86,500, with the yearly open at $87,722 above it. The Supply in Profit Market Bands metric by Axel Adler Jr. showed that the bottom discovery phase was already done, with the supply in profit, in BTC, at 14.6 million, above the liquidity accumulation threshold of 14.175 million, comparing favorably with trends from 2022-23. According to CNBC TV18, institutional demand remains one of the factors cushioning the decline, with US spot Bitcoin and Ether funds continuing to attract money in the latest completed session, though futures activity has cooled.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs drew $346.98 million on September 23, extending net inflows to five consecutive sessions, according to SoSoValue data. BlackRock's IBIT led with $166.29 million, followed by Fidelity's FBTC at $143.24 million, Morgan Stanley's MSBT receiving $32.41 million, and ARK 21Shares' ARKB taking in $5.04 million. The five-session streak brought combined net inflows to roughly $2.65 billion, including previous sessions of $159.5 million on September 17, $433 million on September 18, approximately $999 million on September 21, and $714.7 million on September 22. Demand extended beyond Bitcoin products, with U.S. spot Ether ETFs receiving $105 million on September 23, led by BlackRock's ETHA with $50.8 million and Fidelity's FETH with $41.3 million. According to CNBC TV18, experts noted that institutional flows are still offering some support to the market, with Blue Aster Capital's Sidharth Sogani Jain pointing to strong recent Bitcoin ETF inflows and saying Bitcoin has started catching up with gold after lagging the precious metal for several months.
The Futures Open Interest Percent Change Oscillator has dipped toward the September 10 lows of -6.16% and was at -4.8% at the time of writing, approaching the -8.5% threshold that typically signals the end of a local correction. This metric measures the rate of change in Open Interest rather than tracking raw nominal OI, helping pinpoint market phases of overheating and leverage flushes. The October rate hike odds currently stand at a 68.1% probability of a 25 bps hike, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, with these upcoming macro reports potentially affecting these probabilities. Despite the current correction, on-chain metrics and price action suggest a bull market is underway, with a price dip below $80,000 offering a buying opportunity according to market analysts. Further drawdown remains a possibility, with a correction below $80,000 not invalidating the market structure, though a drop below $74,967 would be needed to flip the H4 swing structure bearishly. According to CNBC TV18, the next major trigger is likely to come from US economic data, with markets tracking JOLTS job openings data on September 29, PCE inflation data on September 30, and September jobs report on October 2. Stronger economic or employment data could keep interest-rate expectations higher and put further pressure on Bitcoin, while softer data could ease concerns over further rate increases.
