ICICI Bank, India's second-biggest private sector lender by market capital, is expected to report strong year-on-year growth in net interest income (NII) and profit after tax (PAT) in the September quarter, according to latest brokerage estimates. The bank is slated to post its September quarter earnings this Saturday (October 17) along with several other leading private banking names like HDFC Bank and Axis Bank. JM Financial expects PAT to grow 15% YoY, while Motilal Oswal Financial Services (MOFSL) and Dolat Capital project growth of 18.5% and 21% respectively. Investors will track net interest margins (NIMs), loan and deposit growth, operating profitability and asset quality, with margin pressure and provisioning trends remaining key monitorables.
According to the latest estimates, ICICI Bank's standalone net profit is projected to rise 16.2% year-on-year to ₹14,366 crore, compared to ₹12,358.89 crore in the same quarter last year. Net interest income is expected to grow 16.9% YoY to ₹25,165.98 crore versus ₹21,529 crore previously. However, net interest margin is seen easing to 4.28% from 4.3% in the June quarter, with analysts expecting a 10-20 basis points sequential decline due to strong foreign currency non-resident (FCNR(B)) deposit inflows and higher proportion of leveraged loans. Provisions are estimated to rise 87.7% YoY to ₹1,716.22 crore from ₹914 crore, reflecting higher standard asset provisioning on the expanded advances base.
As reported by MOFSL, loans are estimated to rise 26.2% YoY and 9% QoQ to ₹17,77,700 crore, while deposits are projected to increase 25.2% YoY and 10.1% sequentially to ₹20,19,700 crore, supported by strong foreign currency non-resident (bank) deposit inflows. The bank is expected to have captured 13-14% of industry-wide FCNR inflows, amounting to US$17.88 billion, equivalent to 9.3% of deposits, according to Citi. NII growth of 16.8% YoY to ₹25,150 crore is expected, though NIMs are expected to decline by 20 basis points QoQ due to the surge in FCNR(B) deposits and higher corporate loan mix. Dolat Capital expects NII to rise to ₹25,490 crore (18% YoY and 5% QoQ), the highest estimate among brokerages.
Gross non-performing assets (GNPA) are estimated at 1.39% in Q2FY27, compared with 1.38% in Q1FY27, with net NPA expected to remain at 0.3% against 0.4% in the June quarter. MOFSL projects the provision coverage ratio (PCR) at 75.7%, compared with 75.2% in Q1FY27. The expected moderation in gross and net NPA ratios points to improvement in reported asset quality. However, provisions are estimated to rise marginally QoQ, partly due to higher standard asset provisioning on the leveraged portion of the loan book. Management commentary on deposit pricing, cost of funds, lending yields and the outlook for NIMs will be closely watched. MOFSL has retained its Buy rating with a target price of ₹1,750, implying an upside of approximately 33%, and has raised EPS estimates for FY27 and FY28 by 2.5% and 3.4% respectively.
