Crude oil futures on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) experienced significant gains this week, with prices rising 19% over the past five trading sessions. On Friday, May crude oil contract was trading at approximately ₹9,200 per barrel, up ₹25 or roughly 0.27% in early trading, as reported by Mint. During the session, the contract fluctuated within a range of ₹9,033 to ₹9,249, reflecting mild volatility. The latest trading comes after crude oil prices in India opened lower at ₹9,127 per barrel and touched an intraday high of ₹9,137 per barrel on MCX, according to Mint. However, oil prices in India failed to sustain at higher levels after the profit-booking trigger and touched an intraday low of ₹9,083 per barrel within a few minutes of the Opening Bell.
Global oil prices experienced significant gains on Friday morning amid escalating Middle East tensions and Trump's latest military directives. Brent crude futures rose 2.5% to $107.97 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices were near $96 in New York trading, as reported by CNBC-TV18. In India, crude oil for May delivery slipped ₹48, or 0.52%, to ₹9,127 per barrel on Multi Commodity Exchange, trading in 12,549 lots. During Thursday's trading hours, Brent crude oil prices surged to hit an intraday high of $107.40 per bbl, marking the third consecutive day of oil prices elevated above the $100 per bbl psychological mark. Both benchmark contracts had settled up more than 3% on Thursday and jumped $5 a barrel after reports that air defences were engaging targets over Tehran and of a power struggle between Iran's hardliners and moderates.
The price surge was triggered by President Trump's latest military directive regarding the Strait of Hormuz, as reported by Upstox. Trump announced on Thursday evening that he has ordered the US Navy to 'shoot and kill any boat' planting mines in the waters of Strait of Hormuz, without any hesitation to clear the key trading route. The latest developments show Trump canceled a planned trip over the weekend by his top envoys to Pakistan, which is mediating talks, while Iran said it won't negotiate so long as it's being threatened. As reported by CNBC-TV18, Trump told his envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff to skip the trip to Pakistan, and later told reporters that Iran "offered a lot, but not enough." Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said his nation won't enter "imposed negotiations under threats or blockade." Despite the ceasefire deals and enforcement actions, supply through the key trading route remains disrupted, weighing down on the exports from Gulf nations, further impacting the global oil prices.
The Iran war, now in its ninth week, has driven up energy prices and led to shortages of key products such as liquefied petroleum gas in India, and prompted airlines to cut flights, as reported by CNBC-TV18. The International Energy Agency says the conflict is causing the biggest supply shock in history. A blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by both the US and Iran has cut daily transits through the key chokepoint to near zero, with 37 ships redirected since the start of the blockade, according to US Central Command. The longer Hormuz is closed, the more consumption is going to have to recalibrate lower to align with supply that's dropped at least 10%, according to traders. A loss of 1 billion barrels is already all but guaranteed — more than double the emergency inventories that governments released after the conflict.
Multiple industry experts and institutions are now projecting a gradual recovery in Strait of Hormuz traffic by the second half of 2026. The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas's Q1 2026 Energy Survey found that 39% of participating oil and gas companies expect normal traffic in the Strait of Hormuz by August 2026, with another 26% anticipating recovery by November 2026. The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects flows through the Strait of Hormuz to gradually resume from May 2026 onwards, as reported by The Hindu BusinessLine. Baker Hughes, in its Q2 2026 and FY2026 guidance, stated that Middle East disruptions continue through the end of June, without further escalation, with conflict resolved at the end of Q2 2026 and Strait of Hormuz fully operational during all H2 2026. Market experts remain cautiously optimistic about the oil price trajectory despite current volatility.
