Crude oil futures experienced dramatic gains on Monday, with MCX crude oil prices rising as much as 5.51% to ₹9,471 per barrel on 11 May, tracking global price movements. Brent crude futures jumped as much as 4.2% to $105.54 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate climbed above $99 per barrel. According to The Hindu BusinessLine, May crude oil futures on MCX were trading at ₹9,473, up 4.98% from the previous close of ₹9,024, while June futures reached ₹9,149, up 4.75% from ₹8,734. This surge follows US President Donald Trump's rejection of Iran's latest peace proposal, with the war in West Asia approaching its three-month mark. Recent developments show wartime fuel prices have averaged $4.53 a gallon, up 25 cents for the second week, reflecting the ongoing impact of geopolitical tensions on energy markets.
Trump called Iran's response 'TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE' in a post on Truth Social, stating he 'doesn't like it — TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE!' according to The Hindu BusinessLine. According to Reuters, Trump is expected to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping this week, with US officials indicating that concerns over China's position on Iran will likely feature in the discussions. Talks are expected to cover the revenue China earns from Iran as well as potential Chinese arms exports to the country. The U.S. still has no reply from Iran on the latest peace plan, but President Trump says it could happen 'any minute', according to latest reports. This ongoing uncertainty continues to contribute to the current oil price rally as markets anticipate continued geopolitical tensions.
The Strait of Hormuz continues to remain relatively shut, despite recent developments in shipping operations. According to reports from CNBC TV18, a Qatari gas tanker crossed the region for the first time since the war began, while a Panama-flagged bulk carrier bound for Brazil navigated the route through a designated area mapped by Iranian forces. However, a drone strike on Sunday that briefly set a cargo vessel ablaze off Qatar in the Persian Gulf marked the latest shipping attack since the ceasefire began in early April. The United Arab Emirates and Kuwait also reported intercepting hostile drones. Reuters quoted Amin Nasser, CEO of Saudi Aramco, as warning on Sunday that markets may remain unstable until 2027 if disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz persist for several more weeks. To offset supply disruptions, the company has redirected part of its oil exports through its Yanbu port on Saudi Arabia's western coast.
According to Mint, Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, said crude oil continues to experience elevated intraday volatility as traders assess potential supply disruption risks alongside evolving diplomatic developments. On the technical outlook, Ponmudi noted that MCX Crude Oil traded in a highly volatile yet consolidative range during recent sessions, after witnessing a sharp decline from highs above the ₹10,000 mark earlier in the week, it is currently consolidating near the ₹8,900– ₹9,100 zone after recovering sharply from lows near ₹8,400 zone. The rebound is facing resistance at higher levels, reflecting cautious sentiment amid ongoing Middle East tensions. Technically, ₹9,150– ₹9,250 acts as an immediate resistance zone; a sustained move above this band could extend recovery toward ₹9,600– ₹9,800. The near-term outlook remains cautious and highly headline-driven, with volatility likely to persist amid developments around the Strait of Hormuz.
