According to a report from McKinsey Global Institute, energy security measures already underway or under discussion could offset 35-70% of oil flows that passed through the Strait of Hormuz before the current crisis by 2030 if the region faces another major disruption. The report emphasized that this estimate is not a forecast and would depend on whether the projects and measures under discussion are actually implemented. As reported by McKinsey, the upper end of the range depends on how many projects discussed since the 2026 crisis are eventually realized. The measures identified include faster electrification, developing alternative oil and gas supplies, building bypass pipelines, reshaping trade flows, increasing inventories, managing demand and expanding clean energy.
The current energy system has demonstrated significant resilience by absorbing much of the disruption through temporary buffers, bypass pipelines and changes in global trade flows. According to the report, around 21 million barrels per day (MMb/d) of crude and refined products flowed through the Strait of Hormuz in the fourth quarter of 2025. McKinsey noted that some oil continued to move through the Strait, while inventory adjustments, alternative pipeline routes, higher supplies from outside the Gulf and weaker demand helped narrow the resulting supply-demand gap. The report warned that existing buffers are coming under increasing strain, with two-thirds of global energy trade passing through maritime chokepoints and about one-third crossing geopolitical boundaries, leaving the energy system vulnerable to future disruptions.
According to the McKinsey report, bypass pipelines could provide the largest share of the potential offset by 2030. These measures would not necessarily replace Gulf oil under normal market conditions but would create optionality to flows through the Strait itself in the event of a shock by providing alternative routes and additional capacity. The energy security measures include speeding up electrification, developing alternative oil and gas supplies, building bypass pipelines, rewiring trade flows, increasing inventories, managing demand and expanding clean energy. These pipelines would not replace Gulf oil under normal market conditions but would provide alternative routes and additional capacity, giving oil producers and traders greater flexibility if flows through the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted.
For the longer term, McKinsey emphasized that energy security would require a combination of measures rather than reliance on a single solution. The report highlighted that bringing firms closer to best energy-efficiency practices could reduce industrial energy costs by up to $600 billion annually. As reported by McKinsey, "These levers illustrate that no single route can fully work on its own. Every option has limitations and ceilings. But there is much room to manoeuvre." The report concluded that energy security comes less from eliminating dependence than from creating layers of optionality and diversification, more sources of supply, alternative routes, larger buffers and greater diversification, rather than attempting to eliminate dependence on any single source or route.
