India's monsoon crisis has intensified with the all-India seasonal cumulative rainfall deficit reaching 38% during the monsoon season from June 1 to July 2, 2026, according to the latest update from the India Meteorological Department (IMD). The weekly cumulative all-India rainfall ending on July 2 is 33% below the long-period average, marking a significant deterioration from earlier forecasts. This represents a sharp increase from the 42% deficit recorded as of June 25, highlighting the rapid deterioration of monsoon conditions. July is the main planting month for monsoon crops such as rice, soybeans, cotton and pulses, making the below-normal precipitation particularly concerning for agricultural recovery. The weather bureau's latest forecast points to normal to above-normal precipitation in the first week of July, but the outlook remains sensitive to rainfall distribution, as heavy downpours over a short period could also create disruptions.
Water levels in the 166-odd reservoirs across the country dipped below normal levels for the first time this season during the week ended July 2, as the monsoon continued its weak run throughout June. During the week ended July 2, water levels in the 166 reservoirs dropped to 47.72 BCM (billion cubic metres), down from 78.07 BCM during the corresponding period last year and lower than the 10-year average of 48.40 BCM. Till last week, water levels in the 166 reservoirs were 6 per cent above normal (the 10-year average), but they dropped to 1 per cent below normal during the week ended July 2, 2026. Though rains have picked up in the past few days and the reservoirs have once again started filling up, how much they eventually fill will depend on the extent of rainfall in July and August. After a prolonged lull, the southwest monsoon has picked up pace, but cumulative rainfall from June 1 to July 2, 2026, remained 33% below normal.
Kharif crop sowing has declined significantly across India, with total acreage dropping 23% to 182.72 lakh hectares as of June 25 compared to 236.46 lakh hectares in the same period last year, according to the latest data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers' Welfare. This represents a decline of 53.74 lakh hectares, or nearly 22.7%, highlighting the impact of below-normal rainfall during what is typically the peak sowing season. The current coverage represents only 16.5% of the normal seasonal sowing area of 1,104.46 lakh hectares, compared with more than 21% achieved by the same time last year. The area under monsoon-sown crops including rice, oilseeds, corn and cotton fell to 18.27 million hectares (45 million acres) as of June 25, as reported by Business Standard. India is reeling through a rain deficit of 42% in June 2026, with the monsoon being 42% below normal as of June 25, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). El Nino conditions are currently present over the equatorial Pacific Ocean and are expected to strengthen further during the June-September monsoon season.
Paddy acreage, the main kharif crop, declined 25.17% to 25.75 lakh hectares as of June 25, compared to 34.41 lakh hectares last year, marking a decline of 8.65 lakh hectares, or around 25%. Pulses sowing lagged by 30.47% at 14.92 lakh hectares versus 21.46 lakh hectares in the previous year. Among pulses, tur/arhar sowing stood at 356,000 hectares against 845,000 hectares in the corresponding period. The situation is particularly concerning for pulses, which is a crucial source of protein for millions of Indians. Sowing of key pulse crops such as arhar (pigeon pea), urad and moong has lagged considerably behind last year's pace, reflecting the broader impact of delayed monsoon conditions on agricultural activities. However, experts note that production of pulses does not tend to fall much as they are the final alternative crop for farmers in the event of low rains since they require less water.
Oilseed acreage has nearly halved, dropping from 36.41 lakh hectares to just 16.99 lakh hectares, a decline of 53.33%. Soybean, India's largest oilseed crop, has been the worst affected, with sowing over only 6.92 lakh hectares compared to 19.97 lakh hectares at the same time last year—a massive 65.3% reduction. Groundnut sowing has also fallen sharply by 42%, raising concerns over domestic edible oil production in the months ahead. Cotton acreage recorded one of the sharpest declines, falling 34.61% to 29.66 lakh hectares from 45.36 lakh hectares in the same period. Coarse cereals acreage also declined to 31.84 lakh hectares from 3.607 million hectares. Within the pulse segment, pigeon pea (arhar), urad, and moong all registered lower sowing, while among coarse cereals, only jowar showed higher acreage compared to last year. Bajra, maize, and ragi remained below previous year's levels, reflecting the uneven progress of the monsoon across different regions. A recent analysis by QuantEco Research identified pulses, coarse cereal, oilseeds, and cotton as the most vulnerable crops in case of monsoon deficiency, with Maharashtra (43.3% irrigated), Rajasthan (46.8% irrigated), Karnataka (43.3% irrigated), Jharkhand (17.2% irrigated) and Chhattisgarh (34.3% irrigated) being the most vulnerable states.
The agriculture ministry has prepared an elaborate contingency plan to deal with the weak monsoon impact. The ministry has mapped 315 districts across Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Karnataka, Bihar, Jharkhand, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, and Odisha as likely to receive below-normal rainfall. Of these, 111 have less than 25% irrigation coverage have been classified as 'most vulnerable', while 76 have been categorised as 'medium-vulnerable' (25-50% irrigation coverage) and 128 as 'least vulnerable' (more than 50% irrigation coverage). A majority of the 111 'highly vulnerable' districts are in the states of Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh, with the former accounting for almost 22 of them. Special drives would be taken up in these 111 'highly vulnerable' districts to ensure full crop insurance coverage, easier loan availability, adequate seeds for replanting, maximum utilisation of available water resources and fertiliser availability. The ministry has drawn up state-wise contingency plans recommending alternative crops suited to deficient rainfall conditions, with states directed to promote pulses, oilseeds and coarse cereals that require less water, and to encourage short-duration and climate-resilient seed varieties. The Finance Ministry has flagged the monsoon rainfall deficit as a concern for the economy, with the ministry noting that "Among the many things India needs to build buffers for in the coming years, water may be at the top of the list" in its June monthly economic review. Deficient rains are unlikely to be "a big problem" for staples, but they raise concerns over oilseeds crops and vegetable price inflation, according to Teresa John, economist with Nirmal Bang Equities Pvt Ltd.
