India's crude oil imports fell 13% in March from pre-war levels in February, with the world's third-largest oil importer and consumer importing 4.5 million barrels per day according to shipping data obtained from industry sources. The decline was primarily driven by disruptions to Middle Eastern shipments via the Strait of Hormuz, where traffic has come to a standstill after Iran and the United States blocked vessels from passing. Only a handful of oil tankers have sailed to India in the past two months, with two Indian-flagged ships attacked while trying to cross the strait on Saturday. As per The Times of India, the US-Iran war caused the Strait of Hormuz through which 20% of global crude transits to be effectively closed, forcing India to seek alternative supply sources.
Imports from Russia nearly doubled from February to 2.25 million barrels per day in March, making Russian oil 50% of India's total imports - the highest share ever recorded. According to The Times of India, the biggest shift was in state-owned refineries' imports from Russia, which saw a massive 148% month-on-month increase, with their imports being 72% higher than March 2025. The share of Middle Eastern oil in India's crude imports declined to the lowest level ever at 26.3% in March, with shipments from Iraq and United Arab Emirates falling to multi-year lows. To replace Middle East oil, Indian refiners snapped up Russian oil floating at sea after New Delhi was the first to get a waiver from the United States to buy the sanctioned supply. According to The Hindu BusinessLine, Russian crude arrivals at Indian ports are set to reach 2.1 million bpd for the week of April 20-27, up from 1.67 million bpd the previous week.
Washington issued a 30-day waiver in mid-March for countries to buy sanctioned Russian oil and petroleum products to help stabilise global energy markets roiled by its war with Iran. The waiver was renewed last week, allowing Russian oil deliveries to continue via non-sanctioned enterprises in the supply chain. Indian refiners had already secured most of their May delivery volumes as early as last week, paying premiums of $7 to $9 per barrel of Russian oil to dated Brent for cargoes delivered in May. India has expanded the pool of Russian insurers eligible to provide marine cover to ships docking at its ports, increasing the number to 11 from eight, according to its Directorate General of Shipping. As per The Times of India, the Trump administration's decision to waive sanctions on Russian crude and extend that waiver to May has allowed Indian refiners to step up procurement without any worries.
What stands out is the fact that when India stepped up its procurement of Russian crude after the Ukraine war began, the oil was available at very steep discounts. However, come 2026, with oil supplies via Hormuz disrupted and global crude oil prices rising, Russia is now selling at a premium. According to The Times of India, Indian refiners are currently paying a premium of about $4-6 per barrel over the Brent benchmark for Russian crude, which are some of the highest delivered premiums on Russian crude since Russia began diverting large volumes of crude to Asia after the Ukraine war. This shift is attributed to intense competition for prompt Russian cargoes as disruptions to Middle Eastern supply routes pushed refiners to prioritise assured deliveries over price. The premium contrasts starkly with February 2026, when Indian buyers were still securing Russian crude at discounts of roughly $12–$15 per barrel.
Experts believe that once the situation in the Middle East normalizes, India will go back to buying crude from Gulf countries, and Russia's percentage in India's oil imports will come down. According to The Times of India, Russian crude is likely to remain an important supplier through 2026 even as its share moderates from March's highs and Middle Eastern flows stabilize. India continues to strengthen its energy resilience by diversifying crude sourcing and maintaining a pragmatic sourcing strategy driven by price, availability, and energy security considerations. As per Crisil Intelligence, India's Russian crude imports are currently tracking at around 1.6 million barrels per day, which is approximately 375 kbd lower than March levels, though this dip needs context as Nayara (approximately 400 kbd, fully reliant on Russian crude) has been under maintenance since the second week of April. The flows are expected to range between 1.5-2 million barrels per day with a slight dip possible due to ongoing infrastructure issues in Russia.
