The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has significantly raised India's wheat export projections to 2 million tonnes from the previous forecast of 0.25 million tonnes, according to its latest 'Grain: World Market and Trade' report. This revision comes as the government has lifted the wheat export ban that was in place since May 2023, with the USDA noting that India is forecast to become a net exporter despite the small scale relative to global trade. The export forecast increase follows a 24.8 million tonne decline in global wheat production for 2026-27, with total production projected at 819.1 million tonnes compared to the record 843 million tonnes in 2025-26.
The export forecast increase follows a 24.8 million tonne decline in global wheat production for 2026-27, with total production projected at 819.1 million tonnes compared to the record 843 million tonnes in 2025-26. Major wheat-exporting countries face significant production cuts, including the United States (-11.5 million tonnes, -21%), the EU (-9.1 million tonnes, -6%), Argentina (-6.9 million tonnes, -25%), Australia (-6.0 million tonnes, -17%), Canada (-5 million tonnes, -12%), Kazakhstan (-4.3 million tonnes, -22%), and Russia (-4.3 million tonnes, -5%). The USDA report projects a decline in global grain production to 1.29 billion tonnes from 1.33 billion tonnes in 2025-26, with rice production including India expected to fall by 5 million tonnes to 537.8 million tonnes.
Wheat prices are currently hovering at a 23-month high at $6.60 per bushel, with US wheat prices gaining roughly $17 per tonne due to drought conditions. According to Delhi-based exporter Rajesh Paharia Jain, the geopolitical crisis, particularly the Iran war, has resulted in crude oil and fertiliser prices rising, making the agri-commodity outlook bullish for the second half of the year. Currently, Indian wheat is quoted at $270-275 per tonne, compared to US soft red winter wheat at $260 per tonne and European wheat at $230 per tonne. However, input costs are rising significantly, with urea prices jumping from $620 to $860 per tonne last week, adding pressure on farmer margins.
The government has demonstrated strong commitment to supporting wheat farmers by paying more than US$4 million to clear outstanding debts from last year's harvest, as announced by the Grain Marketing Board (GMB). These payments come as farmers intensify winter wheat planting ahead of the 2026 production season, representing a significant effort to sustain the country's recent gains in wheat self-sufficiency. The support measures are crucial as farmers prepare for the upcoming harvest season amid challenging market conditions and rising input costs.
Despite the export projections, there remains uncertainty over India's domestic wheat production this year. While the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers' Welfare has projected a record high of 120 million tonnes, a survey by the Roller Flour Millers Federation of India predicted production at least 5 million tonnes lower than government estimates. The Food Corporation of India (FCI) has procured over 30 million tonnes of wheat through the minimum support price scheme, with current procurement prices at ₹2,450 per quintal against the government's MSP of ₹2,585 per quintal.
