India's steel market continues to demonstrate exceptional growth momentum, with crude steel production increasing by 11% year-on-year in March, according to Goldman Sachs' latest report. This represents a significant acceleration from the 10% growth rate recorded in the first half of the year and the 7% increase observed in February. As reported by Goldman Sachs, India's steel market is maintaining its position as one of the fastest-growing globally, even as broader market conditions show mixed signals. The report highlights India as one of the few major steel-producing economies showing strong growth momentum, with the country's crude steel production increasing by 11% year-on-year in March, up from the 10% growth rate recorded in the first half of the year and the 7% increase observed in February. Goldman Sachs' latest "Global Steel: The Steel Market Barometer - May Update" study confirms India's continued leadership in global steel production growth, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi recently highlighting India's position as the world's fastest-growing major economy and the world's largest talent pool during a meeting with Dutch CEOs in the Netherlands.
Global steel markets experienced significant price increases in April and early May, with average hot rolled coil (HRC) prices rising across nearly every major region, according to Goldman Sachs' analysis. Brazil led the price increases with a 10% month-over-month rise, followed by Japan at 6.5% and China at 2.9%. On a year-to-date basis, Brazil's HRC steel price performance has been the strongest at +21%, followed by the US at +15%, with other regions showing increases ranging from 6% to 13%. In April, long steel prices also increased globally, with Brazil seeing the biggest rebar price increase at 12%, followed by Europe at 6.9% and the Black Sea region at 6.1%. Goldman Sachs projects relatively stable steel prices across key global markets through the rest of 2026, with US steel prices expected to remain stronger than those in Europe, China and Brazil. The report notes that on a YTD basis, Brazil's HRC steel price performance has been the strongest in their sample (+21%), followed by the US (+15%), with other regions also showing price increases from 6%-13%.
In contrast to India's strong performance, China's steel production faced significant challenges during the first two weeks of May. According to Goldman Sachs, China's steel production decreased 3.2% year-over-year from the same period in the previous year. The report attributes this decline to delayed implementation of capacity limits, creating ongoing pressure on China's steel sector. Goldman Sachs noted that while the anti-inflation effort and long-term capacity cut plan for the Chinese steel sector remain intact, there is delayed execution in 2026E in terms of both capacity and production discipline. However, the report also highlights that infrastructure investment excluding water and power supply rose 8.9% year-on-year during the first three months of 2026, indicating that infrastructure activity remains relatively strong despite weakness in the property market. During the first two weeks of May, China's steel production continued to decline annually, with the report stating that "on the industry level, while the anti-inflation effort and long-term capacity cut plan for the Chinese steel sector remain intact, we see delayed execution in 2026E in terms of both capacity and production discipline."
The report highlights diverging trends across major steel-producing economies beyond the traditional Big Three. In Europe, crude steel production increased 16% month-on-month in March, though it remained down 3% both year-on-year and on a year-to-date basis. In the United States, average weekly steel production rose 3% month-on-month in April, while utilisation rates averaged 79.6%, improving both sequentially and annually. Manufacturing activity in China improved in March, while construction activity weakened, reflecting uneven demand trends within the broader steel-consuming sectors. Goldman Sachs also notes that construction activity weakened, reflecting uneven demand trends within China's steel-consuming sectors, indicating that while some sectors show strength, others face challenges. The research states that "while construction activity declined in March, manufacturing activity in China increased, indicating unequal demand trends within the larger steel-consuming industries." Additionally, Goldman Sachs predicted that steel prices in major international markets would stay comparatively steady for the remainder of 2026, with US steel prices continuing to be higher than those in Europe, China, and Brazil.
