The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has confirmed that the southwest monsoon has arrived over Kerala today, marking the expected start of India's rainy season in the southern state after a three-day delay from the usual June 1 timeline. According to the latest IMD forecast, conditions remain favourable for the monsoon's further advance into more parts of the Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal and peninsular India during the next 24 hours. The delayed arrival could also affect the monsoon's progress across the rest of the country. The monsoon season usually begins around June 1, making this timeline particularly crucial for agricultural planning across the nation. Once the monsoon sets in, Kerala is likely to receive heavy to very heavy rainfall in some isolated areas over the next 6-7 days, along with thunderstorms and strong winds of around 40-50 kmph. As per the IMD's latest release on June 3, very heavy and heavy rainfall is expected in Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and Karnataka over the next six to seven days.
The Southwest Monsoon has advanced significantly, covering Kerala and Mahe, the entire Lakshadweep region and parts of Karnataka and Tamil Nadu. According to the IMD, the monsoon has also progressed over large sections of the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal. The weather department has also warned of thunderstorms and gusty wind conditions in several regions. Conditions remain favourable for the monsoon to advance further into Goa, parts of Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and the remaining parts of Tamil Nadu, and sections of the northeastern state over the next few days. The monsoon has now further advanced into remaining parts of Southwest & Southeast Arabian Sea, some parts of westcentral & eastcentral Arabian Sea, entire Lakshadweep islands, Kerala & Mahe, some parts of Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, remaining parts of Comorin area, southeast Bay of Bengal and some more parts of southwest, westcentral, eastcentral and northeast Bay of Bengal as of June 4, 2026.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued orange alerts for three districts in Kerala - Alappuzha, Kottayam, and Ernakulam - for three hours on June 4 morning as heavy rains lashed various parts of the state since the previous night. According to the latest IMD forecast, on June 3, orange alerts were issued for Alappuzha, Kottayam, Ernakulam, and Thrissur, while yellow alerts covered the remaining districts. On June 4, when the monsoon is expected to arrive, orange alerts expand to most districts, including Thiruvananthapuram, Kollam, Pathanamthitta, Idukki, and central Kerala. The IMD has issued a yellow alert for the remaining districts, with authorities warning of possible disruptions including waterlogging, flash floods, traffic congestion, and power outages in vulnerable areas. Residents have been advised to remain cautious as rain activity is expected to intensify across the state.
The IMD has predicted isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall over Kerala and Karnataka during the next week, with Tamil Nadu also expected to receive isolated spells of heavy rainfall during the same period. Several northeastern states are expected to remain under the influence of active monsoon conditions, with heavy to very heavy rainfall forecast to continue for the next five to six days. The Northeast is set for severe weather, featuring isolated very heavy rainfall in Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, and Meghalaya from June 6 to 9. These three states will also experience isolated heavy downpours on June 4-5 and 10, alongside Arunachal Pradesh on June 5. Meanwhile, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, and Tripura will see isolated heavy rain from June 5 to 10. The IMD has also forecast moderate to severe thunderstorm activity across many parts of northwest, central and eastern India, as well as southern peninsular regions during the next two to three days, with strong winds with speeds reaching 50-60 kmph likely to accompany thunderstorms in several areas.
The June-September monsoon rains are critical for India's nearly $4 trillion economy, delivering almost 70 per cent of the rainfall needed to water farms and replenish aquifers and reservoirs. The delayed arrival has been particularly challenging as the monsoon is essential to India's nearly $4 trillion economy, delivering almost 70 per cent of the rainfall needed to water farms and replenish aquifers and reservoirs. This year, the onset and progress of the monsoon are being closely watched due to the impact of El Nino on its progress and performance. The India Meteorological Department has already lowered its prediction from 92 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA) to 90 per cent of the LPA. If the prediction comes true, it would mean India would have its worst monsoon in more than a decade in 2026. The IMD stated that El-Nino conditions are likely to be weak in June, and moderate to strong in September, with current conditions transitioning towards El-Nino over the equatorial Pacific region. Rating agency Crisil noted that the 2026 kharif season is expected to begin on a stable note, supported by healthy reservoir levels and favourable early sowing conditions, but warned that El Nino-led rainfall variability and warmer conditions could emerge as key headwinds for yields due to water scarcity and increased pest infections.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) stated that India is expected to see 90% of the long period average (LPA) rainfall this year. LPA refers to the rainfall recorded over a particular region for a given interval, such as a month or a season, averaged over a long period of time, typically 30 to 50 years. The LPA of seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole, based on data from 1971 to 2020, is 87 cm. If the monsoon season sees less than 90% of LPA rainfall, the IMD classifies it as "deficient." One reason for the below-normal rainfall could be the emergence of El-Nino conditions, which lead to less rain during monsoon in the country. Currently, neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation conditions are transitioning towards El-Nino conditions over the equatorial Pacific region. The IMD said El-Nino conditions are likely to be weak in June, and moderate to strong in September.
