Kharif crop sowing across India has nearly concluded during the week ended August 28, with the acreage deficit remaining at around 1.7% compared to the same period last year. According to Business Standard, the area sown till August 28 was almost 3% lower than the normal area, which is usually the average area covered during the same period in the last five years. Despite the challenging conditions, the current acreage is much better than what it was at the end of August, showing some recovery from earlier deficits. The meteorological department noted that 47% of the country has received low rainfall this year from June to August, highlighting the impact of the prolonged monsoon deficit.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued a cautious forecast for September, with rainfall expected to remain below 91% of the long-period average, according to IMD officials. This below-normal forecast for September follows the concerning August performance and suggests continued challenges in meeting normal rainfall expectations for the monsoon season. The September rainfall is expected to be lower than 91% of the long-period average (LPA) of 167.9 millimetres, with a strengthening El Niño expected to mean below-normal rain in September, except for some areas of Northwest, Northeast, East, East-Central and Southeast Peninsular India. With IMD predicting 'below-normal' rains even in September 2026, all eyes will be on the distribution and spread of the remaining monsoon rains in the coming weeks to achieve robust yields.
India recorded its warmest August since records began in 1901, with the country's average temperature rising to 28.01 degrees Celsius, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). The month also saw the highest average minimum temperature for August since 1901, at 24.36 degrees Celsius, compared with the normal of 23.68 degrees Celsius. The heat came alongside below-normal monsoon rainfall, with India receiving 16.3% less rain than normal in August. India received 213.3 mm of rain in August, making it the seventh-lowest rainfall recorded for the month since 2001, as reported by Business Standard. Despite the presence of four low-pressure systems, their limited spread meant that rainfall was concentrated in some areas instead of being distributed more widely across the country.
The below-par monsoon in September, coupled with rising temperatures, could significantly impact crop yields, particularly in areas that were sown late or lack adequate irrigation facilities. August was the warmest recorded since 1901 at 28.01 degrees Celsius due to deficient rainfall and moderate to strong El Niño conditions over the equatorial Pacific. Southern Peninsular India, including states like Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, has recorded a cumulative deficiency of 24.2%, while East and Northeast India had a 25.7% deficiency. Among all crops, maize has seen the maximum drop compared with the same period last year till August 28, according to the latest sowing data. Punjab, eastern Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, southern West Bengal, Sikkim and Meghalaya were among the states that witnessed below-normal rains so far in the monsoon season.
IMD Director General of Meteorology Mrutyunjay Mohapatra told PTI that strong El Niño conditions are currently prevailing over the equatorial Pacific Ocean, with sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern parts of the equatorial Pacific above normal. These conditions are expected to strengthen further in the coming months, adding to agricultural uncertainties. The meteorological department noted that the month is also likely to be warmer than usual for most parts of the country, adding to agricultural uncertainties. The cumulative all-India average monsoon rainfall from June to August has been 13.8% deficient, with August witnessing four low-pressure systems and 26 low-pressure days despite the challenging weather conditions. With the IMD's forecast of below-normal September rains, the focus remains on the distribution and spread of the remaining monsoon rains in the coming weeks to achieve robust crop yields.
