The cost of home-cooked meals experienced significant inflation in September, with vegetarian thali costs rising 10% year-on-year and non-vegetarian thali increasing 6%, according to Crisil's monthly Roti Rice Rate report. As reported by Rediff Moneynews, vegetarian thali preparation costs increased to ₹30.8 in September from ₹28.1 a year ago, while non-vegetarian thali costs rose to ₹59.5 from ₹56. On a month-on-month basis, vegetarian and non-vegetarian thalis increased 4% and 3% respectively in September, with the sharpest pressure coming ahead of the festive season. The vegetarian thali cost rose 34% month-on-month as onion prices surged significantly, while seasonal inventory depletion during October is expected to support prices and keep them elevated in the near term.
Onion prices surged 89% year-on-year to ₹53 per kg in September from ₹28 a year ago, driven by tight rabi stocks following a 5-6% decline in production, according to Crisil. The report indicates that availability is expected to remain constrained in the near term as June rainfall was 40% below the long-period average, delaying kharif transplanting and pushing back fresh arrivals. Vegetable oil prices rose 12% year-on-year despite lower basic customs duty on palm oil, influenced by geopolitical uncertainties and concerns over El Nino impact on global palm oil production. LPG prices were 10% higher year-on-year amid global supply disruptions due to the ongoing war in West Asia. Rice prices increased 8% year-on-year amid expectations of a 5-6% decline in paddy production due to lower acreage and weaker yields. As per Crisil Intelligence's Pushan Sharma, tomato prices may also firm up with delayed kharif arrivals and seasonal demand, while potato prices could see some upward pressure as higher-priced cold-storage stocks are increasingly liquidated.
The increase in non-vegetarian thali costs was relatively lower as broiler prices, which account for about half of the thali cost, rose only 2% year-on-year in September, despite lower chick placements, monsoon-related supply disruptions and higher maize prices. For the non-vegetarian thali, a 2% month-on-month rise in broiler prices amid lower production contributed to the overall cost increase. The combination of higher vegetable, cereal and cooking fuel prices has pushed up the cost of preparing everyday meals, with the rise in non-vegetarian thali costs being comparatively moderate due to slower chicken price increases.
According to Crisil's analysis, onion prices are expected to see a sharper year-on-year increase in the first half of October, with seasonal festive demand adding to supply pressures. The rating and analytics firm expects onion prices to remain elevated in the near term because of depleted seasonal inventories and delayed fresh arrivals. However, prices are likely to moderate gradually towards month-end as fresh kharif arrivals enter the market. For vegetarian thali, seasonal inventory depletion during October is likely to keep prices elevated, while the monthly surge in onion prices was the primary driver of the overall vegetarian thali cost increase. The firm also anticipates that tomato prices may firm up with delayed kharif arrivals and seasonal demand, while potato prices could see some upward pressure as higher-priced cold-storage stocks are increasingly liquidated. Crisil notes that pulses remain another key monitorable, particularly tur, amid weather-related production risks, with tur imports attracting zero duty while Bengal gram imports face a 10% duty.
