Gold has emerged as a standout performer, delivering 62% returns since the last Akshaya Tritiya on April 30, 2025, while the benchmark Nifty 50 index has risen by just 0.7%. According to reports from Mint, this stark divergence highlights the shift in investor preference towards safe-haven assets amid escalating global geopolitical tensions and uncertain macro environment. The strong performance of gold was driven by sustained central bank and investor buying amid persistent macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties, reaffirming its status as the pre-eminent safe-haven asset. InCred Money reports that gold prices rose by nearly 90% between March 2025 and March 2026, with global factors contributing significantly to this surge. In 2025, domestic silver prices surged by over 170%, while domestic gold prices rose by more than 76%, outperforming benchmarks such as the Nifty and the S&P 500.
A new report by InCred Money reveals that Indian households collectively own between 11% and 16% of all the gold ever mined globally—an amount exceeding the combined official gold reserves of countries like the United States, Germany, Italy, and Russia. According to the report, nearly one in three Indian households holds gold as a long-term asset, with the value of gold owned by Indian families having even exceeded 100% of the country's GDP at its peak. The report highlights that gold has long served as a reliable store of value in India, helping households navigate inflation cycles, currency volatility, and geopolitical uncertainties. It continues to remain a preferred alternative asset across generations, blending tradition with strategic investment value. As per InCred Money, this holding represents a multigenerational conviction, built through inflation cycles, currency crises, and geopolitical shocks, with gold serving as India's original alternative asset.
The Nifty 50 has experienced significant volatility, with recent sessions showing sharp intraday swings of over 1,600 points for the Sensex and 500 points for the Nifty 50. As reported by The Economic Times, markets have faced a challenging period with fading hopes for an Iran-US ceasefire, coupled with rising oil prices dampening investor sentiment. Despite initial plunges, both indices have shown resilience and ultimately closed higher for consecutive sessions. The volatility coincides with weekly expiry of Sensex F&O contracts, adding to the market's uncertainty. Foreign investors have continued selling, reflecting caution despite positive momentum from easing geopolitical tensions and falling oil prices. According to CNBC TV18, Sanjeev Prasad, Managing Director and Co-Head at Kotak Institutional Equities, believes the current situation is manageable but only if disruptions remain short-lived. A prolonged conflict, particularly one that keeps crude prices elevated, could begin to weigh on both the macro environment and corporate earnings.
Only two Nifty 50 constituents have delivered more returns than gold since the last Akshaya Tritiya. As reported by Mint, Shriram Finance share price has rallied nearly 69% and Hindalco Industries share price has jumped 67.7% during the period, both surpassing gold's price rally of 62%. Among other stocks, Tata Steel shares gained 53.8% and Bharat Electronics (BEL) share price surged 46%, but could not outperform the safe-haven asset gold. InCred Money reports that Gold Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) have yielded average one-year returns of around 58.81% to 62.85%, with five-year CAGR returns standing at approximately 25.78% to 26.11%. The strong performance of gold was attributed to sustained central bank and investor buying amid persistent macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties, reaffirming its status as the pre-eminent safe-haven asset.
According to Axis Securities, analysts expect gold prices to maintain a positive bias in 2026, as either a stagflationary environment or lower crude oil prices would be supportive for bullion. As reported by Mint, Deveya Gaglani, Senior Research Analyst- Commodities at Axis Securities, expects gold prices to retest the $5,300 – $5,500 range over the next year, implying an upside of around 10–15% from current levels. In the domestic market, prices are expected to reach ₹1,70,000 – ₹1,85,000 over the same period. The 90% rally between March 2025 and March 2026 was driven by sustained central bank purchases of over 1,000 tonnes annually since 2022 and policy moves such as the freezing of $300 billion of Russia's foreign exchange reserves in 2022. The Reserve Bank of India has repatriated its gold reserves from London, while China has directed major insurance companies to invest up to 1% of their assets in physical gold, potentially redirecting $45–53 billion (around 630–750 tonnes) into gold over the next three years. This represents 15-20% of all newly mined gold annually.
