ICICI Securities has upgraded Jindal Steel to BUY from Add with a target price of ₹1254 in its research report dated July 26, 2026. According to the brokerage's analysis, the upgrade is based on expectations of strong volume growth and operational improvements. The target price represents a 7.0x FY28e EV/EBITDA multiple on the stock.
JSPL's Q1FY27 EBITDA of ₹26.6 billion was in line with ICICI Securities' estimates but declined 11% year-on-year and 9% quarter-on-quarter due to lower volumes and higher coking coal costs. As reported by ICICI Securities, the decline was partially offset by improved realisations during the quarter. The company has completed the Phase II 6mntp Angul expansion and is currently in the ramp-up phase.
ICICI Securities expects 24% volume CAGR over FY26-28E to drive earnings growth for Jindal Steel. The brokerage highlighted that cost-saving projects, including the slurry pipeline of 18mnt, coal mines and VA capacities, are expected to unlock operational benefits of at least ₹1,000/te. Additionally, the company's net debt at ₹159 billion is unlikely to increase further as approximately 80% of the capex is already completed.
Despite expecting a potentially weak Q2 due to lower realisations, ICICI Securities believes the stock has already factored in these challenges. The brokerage's analysis suggests that the current market price adequately reflects the near-term headwinds while positioning for the company's long-term growth trajectory driven by volume expansion and operational efficiency improvements.
