Markets have been driven more by geopolitical headlines than fundamentals in recent weeks, with sharp swings triggered by developments around the Iran conflict. According to reports from The Economic Times, the Iran conflict triggered a sharp selloff, wiping nearly 10% off the Nifty in March. What followed was a series of whipsaws: ceasefire hopes led to a rally, talks faltered and markets slipped again, and renewed diplomatic signals sparked another rebound. Even after an 8% recovery so far in April, the index remains below its pre-war levels of around 25,000, while oil prices continue to hover at elevated levels, keeping macro risks alive. Recent analysis from Stockbrokers and Investment Advisers Association confirms that over the past 54 calendar years, global equities have experienced a 10% or more decline in 31 of those years, with 20% or more declines occurring in 13 years during the same period.
One of the clearest emerging strategies is valuation discipline, as emphasized by Paresh Bhagat, CIO of Veer Growth Fund and Chairman at Mangal Keshav Financial. According to The Economic Times, investors should prioritise companies trading at reasonable multiples with visible earnings support. In uncertain environments, expensive stocks tend to correct the most as sentiment unwinds, while fairly valued businesses offer downside protection. The shift is therefore away from narrative-driven investing toward fundamentals-backed opportunities where risk-reward remains favourable even if volatility persists. Historical data supports this approach, as markets often sell off indiscriminately during periods of uncertainty, with good companies sold alongside bad ones, becoming mis-priced.
Markets are currently reacting to every geopolitical update, oil price move, and global signal, but Bhagat emphasizes that reacting to each headline often results in poor outcomes. As reported by The Economic Times, investment decisions should be anchored in earnings visibility, balance-sheet strength, and intrinsic value. In this framework, short-term volatility becomes data rather than a trigger for action. If the underlying business remains intact, price swings alone are not a reason to exit. Historical evidence shows that staying invested makes sense during volatile periods, as experienced investors might even find buying opportunities within the turmoil.
Another key shift is in how investors are deploying capital, with a staggered approach gaining traction. According to The Economic Times, Bhagat notes that phased investing reduces timing risk and improves average entry prices in volatile markets. This becomes particularly relevant in the current environment, where direction is uncertain and sentiment can reverse quickly based on geopolitical developments. This approach reduces the risk of taking concentrated bets during periods of heightened volatility. Historical analysis from Stockbrokers and Investment Advisers Association confirms that trying to time the market can be an expensive mistake, as recoveries can come in abrupt bursts and investors risk returning to the market after the biggest uptick has occurred.
Sidharth Sogani Jain of Blue Aster Capital highlighted that asset allocation is key in this cycle. As reported by The Economic Times, gold is performing its traditional role as a hedge, with prices already elevated and further upside expectations, though he cautions against overexposure. He also flags the volatility in oil, which is trading near $100 per barrel but could swing sharply depending on how geopolitical tensions evolve. Beyond commodities, Jain points out that assets like Bitcoin continue to hold firm in the $70,000-74,000 range with long-term upside expectations, while equities are still expected to deliver around 10-12% annual returns despite near-term risks. The final strategy emphasizes risk management and maintaining a diversified portfolio aligned with individual risk tolerance, with experts recommending holding some allocation in cash or liquid assets and periodically rebalancing to avoid concentration risks.
