WTI crude futures pushed toward $95 a barrel heading into Monday, September 28, after President Donald Trump rejected an Iranian proposal tied to reopening the Strait of Hormuz. WTI Oil price Polymarket odds make for an interesting read as a result, with the ↑$95 outcome priced at 67.5% as of 00:50 UTC on September 28, according to Polymarket View. November WTI futures rose 1.87% to $94.14 a barrel, while Brent crude increased by 2.89% to $107.34, as reported by Clash Report. The market in question, titled "What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in September 2026?", lists price-threshold outcomes and an end date of October 1, 2026, with the market having drawn $8.43M in total trading volume and $1.39 million in available liquidity for further bets. Trump anticipates U.S. strikes on Iran to resume after the midterm elections, adding to market uncertainty about future supply disruptions.
Oil prices experienced a significant recovery on Monday, with Brent crude climbing more than 3%, back above $107 a barrel after Trump rejected Iran's seven-day reopening proposal. This represents a reversal from Friday's decline when crude fell by more than 2% when news of Iran's offer emerged, as reported by NDTV Profit. The moves left Brent up less than 1% over the week, while WTI was down about 8%, highlighting the continued volatility in current market conditions as traders weigh diplomatic progress against ongoing military tensions. October crude oil futures were trading at ₹8,951 on Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), down 2.36% from the previous close of ₹9,167, while November futures were trading at ₹8,625, down 2.37% from ₹8,834. The premium of Brent crude over WTI rose to its highest since May for a third day in a row, while US gasoline futures fell around 4% on Friday, as reported by The Economic Times. Global crude oil prices have receded as markets reacted to intense US-Iran diplomatic developments and shifting supply markets, with prices hovering between $92 and $108 per barrel (approx. ₹9,020 to ₹10,370).
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi will hold talks with Qatari mediators in the US on Monday, staying back after the UN General Assembly to continue diplomatic efforts, according to Reuters. Separately, representatives of Washington would also reportedly be meeting the mediators to discuss a reworked version of the seven-day plan Tehran tabled at the UN General Assembly. However, Iranian state media reported on Monday that Iran's delegation to the UN General Assembly has no negotiations with the US planned, with IRNA stating that "Iran's delegation in New York has no plans for negotiations with the United States" and that the delegation will fly back to Tehran on Tuesday. Mediators are now urging Tehran to bend on its nuclear programme as a way of getting talks moving, with regional government officials telling The Wall Street Journal that Iran thinks it can absorb American pressure, including the blockade and any renewed strikes. Trump told Axios he expects talks to resume soon, with mediators trying to get the two sides to talk to each other directly after discussions between US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner and Araghchi less than a week ago.
Iran has escalated its demands beyond the original seven-day reopening plan, seeking a one-week ceasefire across the region, including in Lebanon, where Israel regularly strikes Hezbollah, an Iranian ally, according to NDTV Profit. Tehran also wants its overseas assets released, easing of the sanctions on its oil sector, and an end to the US naval blockade. The war dates back to February strikes by the US and Israel, aimed at eroding Iran's military strength and pushing back the danger from its nuclear and missile work, with the Strait of Hormuz joining the nuclear file at the centre of diplomacy. Before the war, about a fifth of the world's oil and gas moved through the strait, so its disruption has triggered a severe supply crisis and higher costs worldwide. Iran has been trying to shut the waterway since the fighting began, and the US answered by blockading Iranian ports, creating the current supply crisis that has driven up oil prices by 50% in March alone.
Signs of tightness remain across markets for real-world barrels, with many traders hesitant to shift their positions until they see a meaningful increase in supplies. Brent's prompt spread — the difference between its two nearest contracts — has widened to more than $6.50 a barrel, from less than $1 at the end of last month, indicating backwardation, which is the hallmark of a tight market. Record premiums were paid on Thursday to secure prompt barrels at the main US crude-storage hub in Cushing, Oklahoma, according to Bloomberg. Trump said a "record amount" of oil was taken out of the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday night, while the Fars news agency reported Iranian forces targeted ships using unauthorized routes through the waterway. Crude oil flows out of the Strait of Hormuz reached 33.7 million barrels in the week starting September 20, preliminary ship-tracking data from Kpler showed on Friday, putting exports roughly on track with the previous week's levels. Before the start of the Iran war, about 20% of the world's oil supplies moved through the strait. In Europe, Dated Brent — a critical physical-market indicator — has been trading at a wide premium to futures, while some European refiners were told earlier this month they would be allocated no crude in October under long-term agreements with Saudi Arabia after the kingdom's East-West pipeline was shut because of attacks.
The Houthis have launched strikes on the Saudi-backed government in Yemen and repeatedly fired into Saudi Arabia, disrupting oil flows from the world's largest energy exporter, part of a wider Middle East war that began with US and Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28. Since the war began at the end of February, around a fifth of the world's oil and gas shipments have been curtailed, with the conflict driving up prices by 50% in March alone. Regional tensions also remain elevated as Saudi-led coalition forces in Yemen said on Saturday that air defenses intercepted Houthi drones headed toward Riyadh and a missile targeting Khamis Mushait in the south, with alerts also issued at Abha and Jazan, which host Aramco's energy facilities. Daan Struyven, co-head of global commodities research at Goldman Sachs, said recent attacks showed that disruptions to shipping could spread and become more severe, with the bank outlining a scenario where oil prices could reach as much as $120 a barrel if attacks on vessels in the Middle East intensify, while if exports return to normal, oil prices would move back towards $80 a barrel. A cargo vessel reportedly on fire and adrift after being struck by an unknown projectile earlier this week further highlighted the ongoing risks to shipping infrastructure. Amid the continuous deadlock, Reuters has reported that Saudi Arabia has resumed operations on the pipeline as the wider conflict disrupts established energy routes, with Riyadh seeking to make greater use of alternative infrastructure, including its East-West pipeline to the Red Sea.
US crude inventories rose by 3 million barrels to 426.4 million barrels last week, according to the Energy Information Administration, as reported by The Hindu BusinessLine, contrary to analysts' expectations of a 641,000-barrel draw. This contrary to analysts' expectations of a 641,000-barrel draw, which added to downward pressure on oil prices. Fuel stocks fell during the same period, creating a mixed picture for energy markets. The inventory build comes as traders continue to monitor supply developments and their impact on global oil markets. Gasoline inventories decreased 1.7 million barrels, 6% below the five-year average, and distillate inventories decreased 0.4 million barrels, 12% below the five-year average, according to the latest EIA report. Over the past four weeks, total products supplied in the US averaged 20.6 million barrels a day, up 0.5% year over year, with the four-week average for gasoline product supplied decreasing 0.8% year over year to 8.8 million barrels a day. In fuel markets, President Trump's economic advisers are analysing the ramifications of a potential short-term ban on American diesel exports as prices for the essential transport fuel surge to record levels, with market participants remaining sceptical of such a move. Brent is up more than 70% this year, and on track for its third monthly gain, as the US-Iran conflict enters its eighth month, adding to inflationary pressures.
