Oil prices rose sharply on Wednesday after US President Donald Trump rejected reports that he was prepared to ease sanctions on Iran, according to The Economic Times and The Hindu BusinessLine. Brent crude futures rose $1.14, or 1.11%, to $103.73 a barrel by 0131 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude gained 34 cents, or 0.38%, to $89.72 a barrel. At 9.36 am on Wednesday, November Brent oil futures were at $103.43, up by 0.82%, and November WTI crude oil futures were at $89.77, up by 0.44%, as reported by The Hindu BusinessLine. Brent is on track for a monthly gain of around 14%, which would be its biggest rise since July, while WTI is set for a 4% monthly increase after earlier crossing $106 a barrel for the first time since May. Trump denied an Axios report citing US officials who said he was willing to provide Iran with sanctions relief and release frozen Iranian funds in exchange for "concrete" steps from Tehran on its nuclear programme. "This is untrue. I offered them NOTHING," Trump wrote on his Truth Social account, as reported by The Economic Times and The Hindu BusinessLine. "Axios just released a story that "Trump" offered Sanctions Relief and Frozen Funds to Iran. This is untrue. I offered them NOTHING! Axios' story, like most others, is a HOAX, used only for purposes of satisfying their Trump Derangement Syndrome," Trump stated on his Truth Social account.
Satellite imagery has confirmed a "major operational recovery" at the Yanbu and Muajjiz terminals, according to a Kpler note published Tuesday. A total of 12.5 million barrels were loaded onto nine tankers at Yanbu between Saturday and Monday, as reported by The Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg News. Reports also said Saudi Arabia restarted loadings from Red Sea port of Yanbu on Tuesday after resuming operations on the East-West pipeline, as reported by The Hindu BusinessLine. Exports from Yanbu had been disrupted by a drone attack on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline earlier this month, raising concerns over another major hit to global oil supplies. Riyadh has since restored flows through the pipeline to around 3.5 million barrels per day, with the pipeline having a maximum capacity of 7 million barrels per day, as reported by The Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg News. The East-West pipeline, which can move around 7 million barrels per day at full capacity, was shut after drone attacks damaged pumping infrastructure earlier this month.
Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have reached a seven-day average of 13.2 million barrels per day, according to Kpler data, representing 77% of the 17 million barrels per day that transited the waterway before the US-Iran war. The US military is providing protection to tankers from its Gulf allies while maintaining a blockade against Iran's exports, as reported by NDTV Profit. Crude oil exports from Middle East producers have rebounded in September to 16.328 million barrels per day, the highest level since the US-Israeli war with Iran started in late February, according to The Economic Times and The Hindu BusinessLine. Product flows such as diesel and gasoline were at 3 million barrels per day, or 58% of pre-war levels, as reported by Bloomberg. The overall figure was 89% of 2025 levels, measured by the 10-day average over the past five days, the analysts said.
US and Iranian officials spoke to mediators on Monday as they seek to negotiate a deal to end the seven-month-long conflict, according to NDTV Profit. Iran offered last week to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in seven days if the US commits to the conditions of the failed June memorandum of understanding, as reported by NDTV Profit. However, President Donald Trump rejected Tehran's proposal on Saturday as oil exports through Hormuz recover, as reported by NDTV Profit. Qatari Foreign Ministry spokesperson Majed al-Ansari told reporters that Qatar is exchanging messages between the US and Iran. "We are working towards establishing a common ground in order to get into a deal that would save all of us from the repercussions of the conflict," al-Ansari said, as reported by The Hindu BusinessLine. Qatar on Tuesday said that it hoped its shuttle diplomacy between Iran and the US could help the two sides reach a breakthrough, according to The Economic Times.
October crude oil futures were trading at ₹8638 on Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) during the initial hour of trading on Wednesday against the previous close of ₹8678, down by 0.46%, and November futures were trading at ₹8445 against the previous close of ₹8487, down by 0.49%, as reported by The Hindu BusinessLine. The spread between the two benchmarks this month also expanded to its widest in four months as traders watched potential plans by the US to restrict diesel exports, which could create an oversupply in the domestic market and lead US refiners to process less crude, according to Business Standard. JPMorgan analysts said they "simply don't know how to model the endgame" of the US-Iran conflict, pointing to the uncertainty over how the conflict could unfold, as reported by The Economic Times. At the start of the conflict, the bank had assumed there were economic thresholds the US administration would not cross. Six months into the war, JPMorgan said many of those thresholds had been crossed, while there was still no clear exit strategy. Goldman Sachs has outlined a scenario in which oil prices could reach as high as $120 a barrel if attacks on vessels in the Middle East intensify, with if exports return to normal, the bank expects oil prices to move back towards $80 a barrel.
