Ukraine has made a significant claim about the effectiveness of its military campaign against Russian energy infrastructure. According to the Defence Ministry, Ukraine's long-range strikes have put 51% of Russia's oil refining capacity out of action, as reported by Business Standard. The ministry stated that recent strikes on refineries in cities including Moscow, Yaroslavl, Ust-Luga, Perm, Saratov and Syzran have achieved this substantial impact. However, this claim could not be independently verified, and both Moscow and Kyiv have intensified their aerial assaults as progress along the 1,200-kilometre front line has largely ground to a halt.
President Vladimir Putin acknowledged the effectiveness of Ukraine's strategy in a rare admission at the Valdai Club forum of international foreign policy experts. Putin stated that the strikes had caused Russia to lose roughly 1% of its gross domestic product, saying "They started attacking oil refineries and openly declared the goal of damaging our economy. Did they achieve their goal? Partially." Ukrainian Defence Minister Yevhenii Khmara confirmed that analysts from Ukraine's intelligence services, the General Staff, and the Defense Ministry itself had assessed the effects of the strikes. Khmara emphasized that "fifty-one percent of struck refining capacity is a significant blow to the enemy's economy, to its ability to carry out aggression and supply its troop groupings."
Ukrainian forces have repeatedly attacked refineries from Moscow to Siberia, sparking a widespread fuel crisis in Russia earlier this year that forced authorities to restrict gasoline sales. According to Business Standard, this sustained campaign has created significant supply challenges for Russian military operations. The strikes have hampered Moscow's ability to supply its forces during the 4 1/2-year-old invasion, with Ukrainian forces continuing their deep strikes to bring the war to Russian territory.
Ukraine has announced plans to double down on attacking Russian oil refineries in response to what President Volodymyr Zelenskyy described as a new and broader Russian airstrike doctrine targeting Ukrainian infrastructure ahead of winter. According to reports from Reuters, Zelenskyy stated that Ukraine would respond by striking Russian energy facilities, particularly oil refineries that generate revenue used to finance Russia's war effort. The president emphasized that Ukraine does not intend to deliberately target civilians or population centers, with both sides denying such actions. Zelenskyy added that Ukrainian intelligence agencies had obtained documents indicating Russian directives to launch wider attacks on civilian targets before winter, with the aim of putting pressure on the population and forcing them to leave Kyiv and other cities.
Ukraine is confronting an evolving drone threat, with Zelenskyy saying Russia's use of jet-powered Shahed drones has made interception more difficult, increasing Kyiv's reliance on F-16 and MiG fighter aircraft. As reported by Reuters, Ukraine is developing interceptor drones and new air-defense systems while expanding its domestic missile capabilities. Last week, Zelenskyy said Ukraine was developing five models of new interceptor drones capable of downing the jet Shaheds, with tests on two models showing a modest success rate of around 30%. The Ukrainian-made FP-7 ballistic missile has entered combat use, with the longer-range MiGs expected later this autumn. Zelenskyy said he had called the manufacturer Fire Point to pressure executives to finish the FP-9 model, which the company has said could hit Moscow, stating "I said to them, where is my FP-9? We need the FP-9. And the FP-9 will be [ready] this autumn, I'm sure."
