The Indian stock market is expected to open on a strong note on Monday, extending gains from the previous week. As reported by The Hindu BusinessLine, the Nifty 50 index closed at 24,050.60 on Friday, up 6% for the week, marking its best performance since February 2021. The BSE benchmark Sensex jumped 943.29 points, or 1.21 per cent, and the NSE Nifty climbed 302.95 points or 1.25 per cent in the previous week. The easing of geopolitical tensions and a drop in crude oil prices below $100 have contributed to improved investor sentiment, with the Indian rupee strengthening to 92.7550 per dollar on Friday, having touched a three-week high earlier in the week.
The Strait of Hormuz crisis has intensified as Iran has tightened control over the strategic waterway, with Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) warning on Friday night that it will blockade the strait again as of today. As reported by The Guardian, the IRGC stated that "Approaching the Strait of Hormuz will be considered cooperation with the enemy, and any offending vessel will be targeted," citing the US blockade as a ceasefire violation. This follows Trump's claim that Iran had conceded to all US demands regarding a cessation of hostilities, but Iran declared it had done no such thing, contradicting all the points in question. Iran said restrictions will continue unless the US ensures full freedom for Iranian ships, while Donald Trump warned the US won't accept "blackmail" over the strait. The ceasefire between the US and Iran is set to expire on April 22, adding to market uncertainty as a second round of peace talks may happen soon, but the US has not confirmed it.
Energy stocks have experienced significant declines following Iran's announcement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping, with Brent crude dropping more than 12% in a massive single-day move. As reported by TIKR, APA Corporation stock fell 6%, while Exxon Mobil stock is up 53% in the past year but faces challenges with a $163 fair value estimate. The selling wasn't just about the ceasefire - just two days before, the International Energy Agency released a bearish monthly report forecasting the first annual decline in global oil demand since 2020. This combination of supply fears fading just as demand concerns are growing has sent investors rushing out of energy stocks and into growth-oriented sectors. What had been a reliable hedge against geopolitical risk suddenly looked much less attractive.
The country's largest private-sector lender, HDFC Bank, on Saturday reported an 8.04 per cent jump in March quarter consolidated net profit to ₹20,350.76 crore, but flagged near-term risks from the West Asia conflict for a segment of small-business borrowers. According to reports from The Hindu BusinessLine, ICICI Bank on Saturday reported a 9.28 per cent rise in consolidated net profit to ₹14,755 crore for the March quarter, helped by a nearly 90 per cent drop in provisioning. Market participants will initially react to results from banking heavyweights such as HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank, followed by several key companies including HCL Technologies, Infosys, Tech Mahindra, Havells, IndusInd Bank, and Shriram Finance. Additionally, Yes Bank is also among the major financial institutions reporting Q4 earnings this week.
Last week, the BSE benchmark Sensex jumped 943.29 points, or 1.21 per cent, and the NSE Nifty climbed 302.95 points or 1.25 per cent. According to The Hindu BusinessLine, Santosh Meena, Head of Research at Swastika Investmart Ltd, said the primary driver for the coming week will be the deluge of Q4 earnings reports, alongside a keen focus on US macro data and ongoing geopolitical shifts. Ponmudi R, CEO -- Enrich Money, noted that investor attention will be focused on the trajectory of US-Iran negotiations, with greater emphasis on signs of a durable resolution rather than short-term headlines. Technical indicators suggest a positive outlook for the Nifty 50, with the index showing strength above key support levels and momentum indicators signaling bullish momentum, with analysts expecting the index to test the 24,300–24,500 range in the near term. However, if the situation gets worse, fuel prices could go higher soon, affecting transport, daily goods, and the global economy, as noted by The Economic Times.
