Stock markets will closely monitor US-Iran conflict developments, crude oil price movements, and quarterly earnings from major corporates for direction this week, according to analysts as reported by PTI. The ceasefire between the US and Iran is set to expire on April 22, adding to market uncertainty. Ajit Mishra, SVP Research at Religare Broking Ltd, noted that geopolitical developments in the US-Iran conflict will remain a key monitorable, given their direct impact on crude oil prices and global risk sentiment. The US dollar index extended its decline for a third consecutive week, slipping to a seven-week low of 97.6 as Iran briefly declared the Strait of Hormuz open, lifting risk sentiment globally. Easing tensions in the Middle East and softer crude oil prices have helped improve global sentiment, with temporary stability in the Strait of Hormuz reducing supply concerns and supporting equity markets.
Market participants will initially react to results from banking heavyweights such as HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank, followed by several key companies including HCL Technologies, Infosys, Tech Mahindra, Havells, IndusInd Bank, and Shriram Finance, according to Mishra. HDFC Bank reported an 8.04% jump in March quarter consolidated net profit to ₹20,350.76 crore, but flagged near-term risks from the West Asia conflict for small-business borrowers. ICICI Bank posted a 9.28% rise in consolidated net profit to ₹14,755 crore for the March quarter, helped by a nearly 90% drop in provisioning.
The Strait of Hormuz, which carries one-fifth of global oil supplies, has seen significant disruptions following the conflict. After the US and Israel launched an attack on Iran on February 28, Tehran largely halted traffic through the waterway. Following Tehran's announcement on Friday that it had opened the waterway for commercial traffic, several commercial vessels tried to cross it. However, Iran had reimposed restrictions citing US "breaches of trust," with Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps gunboats firing on a transiting tanker, and several vessels turned back. Both WTI and Brent briefly spiked above $105 and $103 per barrel respectively after US–Iran talks in Islamabad broke down, as traders priced in severe supply risk premium. However, both benchmarks then plunged sharply, with WTI falling to $80.6 and Brent to $86 a barrel on Friday after Iran's foreign minister declared the strait open and Trump called it "completely open and ready for business." Lower crude prices are especially positive for India, as they help control inflation and improve the overall economic outlook.
Last week, the BSE benchmark Sensex jumped 943.29 points, or 1.21%, and the NSE Nifty climbed 302.95 points or 1.25%, with benchmark indices Nifty 50 and BSE Sensex gaining over 1% each, ending at 24,353 and 78,493 respectively. Markets remained slightly volatile but continued their upward trend for the second straight week. Broader markets performed better than large-cap stocks, showing strong participation from mid and small-cap segments. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) showed early signs of returning, turning net buyers in the last three sessions, though overall weekly flows remained slightly negative at around ₹250 crore. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors (DIIs), who had been supporting the market, booked profits and turned net sellers with weekly outflows of about ₹6,300 crore. Nifty is currently moving in a narrow range of 24,100–24,400, with immediate resistance near 24,400 and support around 24,000. If Nifty breaks above 24,400 and sustains, it could move towards 24,800–25,000 levels, while Bank Nifty's 56,800–57,000 zone is a key resistance, with a breakout potentially pushing it to 58,000 levels.
Investors will track infrastructure output data on April 20 and PMI data (Manufacturing, Services, Composite) on April 23 to provide insights into India's economic health. Energy and metal sectors are expected to remain strong due to global trends, while other sectors may also see movement on a rotational basis. Experts suggest focusing on strong large-cap stocks while selectively investing in mid and small caps. COMEX gold and silver extended their fourth consecutive weekly advance, with gold settling near $4,825 per ounce after testing the $4,900 level and silver surging over 7% to close around $82 per ounce, driven by dollar weakness amid ceasefire optimism.
