Indian equity benchmarks opened on a cautious note Monday morning, with SENSEX opening at 73,477.53 but quickly slipping to 73,198.81, down 120.74 points or 0.16% as of 9:20 am, while NIFTY50 opened at 22,780.30 before easing to 22,699.85, down 13.25 points or 0.06%. According to The Hindu BusinessLine, the Sensex had closed at 73,319.55 on Friday and NIFTY50 had closed at 22,713.10, indicating a marginal decline from previous session levels. The cautious opening reflects investor concerns over rising crude oil prices and escalating geopolitical tensions in West Asia that continue to dampen market sentiment.
Brent crude futures were trading at $109.78 per barrel, up 0.69%, while WTI crude was at $111.52, as reported by The Hindu BusinessLine. On the domestic Multi Commodity Exchange, April crude oil futures were at ₹10,387, down 0.20%, while May futures rose 0.87% to ₹9,273. The surge in crude oil prices was triggered by US President Donald Trump threatening to intensify military strikes on Iran if it fails to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Trump had set an April 7 deadline for Iran to comply, warning of what he termed 'Power Plant Day and Bridge Day' — targeting critical civilian infrastructure if negotiations failed, though he also expressed optimism over a potential deal and extended the deadline to Tuesday at 8:00 PM EST. The Strait of Hormuz situation remains critical as this narrow chokepoint typically carries around one-fifth of the world's crude oil and liquefied natural gas supplies, with oil equivalent to nearly 20% of global demand passing through the strait every day.
Foreign institutional investors extended their selling streak, offloading equities worth ₹9,931 crore in the previous session, as reported by The Hindu BusinessLine. FII short positions remain elevated at around 83%, marking 23 consecutive sessions of net selling in the cash market. However, domestic institutional investors cushioned some of the fall, buying equities worth over ₹7,200 crore. This pattern intensified in March with FII outflows exceeding ₹1.22 lakh crore, the biggest-ever monthly outflow, as reported by Moneycontrol. The selling pressure was driven by oil prices trading above $100 per barrel, continuation of war in the Middle East, and dollar appreciation with the US dollar index closing above 100 mark for the second consecutive week. Domestic institutional investors provided strong support, buying nearly ₹1.75 lakh crore from February 26, almost offsetting FII outflows in recent weeks.
India VIX rose 2.04% to close at 25.52, reflecting elevated fear in the market, according to The Hindu BusinessLine. In the derivatives segment, significant call writing was seen at the 22,800 and 23,000 strikes, while put writing activity was concentrated at 22,500 and 22,600 levels. Technically, the setup remains in favour of bears as selling pressure at higher levels remains strong than buying at lower levels, with NIFTY50 trading well below all key moving averages and showing bearish signals from momentum indicators. The recent week's low of 22,182 is expected to be immediate key support for the index, while 23,000 is likely to be crucial hurdle on the higher side. According to The Hindu BusinessLine, Dr. VK Vijayakumar noted that with uncertainty over the West Asia conflict looming large, the market will continue to be volatile responding to potential good and bad news, and that if the Hormuz Strait is opened, the market will respond positively even if the conflict continues.
Among NIFTY50 gainers, Trent led with a 4.37% rise to ₹3,705.70, followed by Wipro, up 2.52% to ₹199.83, as reported by The Hindu BusinessLine. Hindalco gained 1.44% to ₹929.40, Power Grid rose 1.29% to ₹293.70, and Infosys added 1.11% to trade at ₹1,315.30. The IT sector was broadly outperforming, with Vijayakumar noting there is a short-term trade in IT since Q4 results will be better than expectations and the segment will benefit from the depreciation in rupee. On the losing side, IndiGo and Kotak Mahindra Bank fell the most, each declining 1.83% to ₹4,116.60 and ₹351.45, respectively. Sun Pharma dropped 1.16% to ₹1,673.90, Tata Steel slipped 1.13% to ₹191.94, and Reliance Industries fell 1.09% to ₹1,335.80. The week ahead carries additional weight, with the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee meeting being the first since the outbreak of hostilities — making it a closely watched event for rate guidance in a volatile macro environment.
