Indian equity markets are likely set for a firm start on Monday, supported by positive global cues and easing concerns around energy supply disruptions. According to ABP Live, GIFT Nifty was trading around 24,121, up nearly 198 points, signalling a strong opening for the benchmark Nifty50. The upbeat trend in GIFT Nifty reflects improved investor sentiment after reports suggested fresh diplomatic movement between the US and Iran. However, recent developments show oil prices have risen sharply as stalled ceasefire talks between Washington and Tehran dampened hopes of easing tensions, with Brent crude climbing over 2% to $107.35, marking a 47% surge since the start of the conflict. Market participants appear cautiously optimistic that progress on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a key global energy route, could ease supply concerns and stabilise oil prices in the near term.
On Friday, the Indian stock market ended sharply lower, with the benchmark Nifty 50 slipping below the 23,900 level. As reported by Livemint, the Sensex crashed 999.79 points, or 1.29%, to close at 76,664.21, while the Nifty 50 settled 275.10 points, or 1.14%, lower at 23,897.95. According to Mint, the Nifty 50 slipped 1.87% to end at 23,897.95, while the Sensex dropped 2.33% to settle at 76,664.21. During the session, DIIs bought equities worth ₹21,560 crore and sold ₹16,859 crore, while FIIs acquired shares worth ₹9,837 crore but offloaded equities totaling ₹18,665 crore.
Investor focus remains firmly on West Asia, where geopolitical developments continue to dictate market direction. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has arrived in St. Petersburg ahead of talks with President Vladimir Putin, according to IRNA, signalling Tehran's push to revive diplomacy even as backchannel efforts continue through Pakistan. Iran through Pakistani mediators gave the US a new proposal on reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the ending of the war, with nuclear negotiations postponed for a later stage, as reported by Axios, citing a US official and two sources with knowledge of the matter. However, uncertainty persists after US President Donald Trump warned Iran it has three days to agree to a ceasefire or risk severe damage to its oil infrastructure. In an interview with Fox News, Trump said Iran's pipelines could "explode from within" if oil exports remain blocked and storage capacity runs out. Despite the uncertainty, Russia's envoy to international organisations Mikhail Ulyanov said the US must drop "ultimatums" and "blackmailing" tactics for talks with Iran to progress, while Russian senator Alexey Pushkov claimed the United States is "clearly unprepared" for a war with Iran.
Asian equities traded higher in early deals, tracking optimism around potential easing of tensions. According to ABP Live, Japan's Nikkei 225 and South Korea's Kospi both touched fresh highs, rising 1.41 per cent and 1.94 per cent, respectively. Despite the uncertainty, Asian markets showed resilience with Nikkei 225 and KOSPI opening higher in early trading, as reported by Moneycontrol. Overnight, US markets also ended on a positive note, with the S&P 500 gaining 0.80 per cent and the Nasdaq Composite climbing 1.61 per cent, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average ended marginally lower. The positive momentum in global markets has provided support for Indian equities despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainties.
Crude oil prices continue to trade at elevated levels, with Brent crude futures settling at $105.33 per barrel, up 26 cents or around 0.3%, while US West Texas Intermediate futures closed at $94.40 per barrel, down $1.45 or 1.5%. On a weekly basis, Brent advanced roughly 16% and WTI climbed nearly 13%. The latest surge in oil prices, with Brent climbing over 2% to $107.35, has been driven by stalled ceasefire talks between Washington and Tehran. Iranian MP Ebrahim Rezaei has questioned Pakistan's credibility as a mediator in stalled talks with the United States, alleging it aligns with Washington's interests after recent negotiations in Islamabad failed to yield a breakthrough. Markets are expected to remain volatile and news-driven, with any escalation in tensions potentially triggering profit booking, while signs of de-escalation could support further upside. According to Mint, markets are expected to remain highly news-driven and volatile, with key focus on developments in U&Iran negotiations, trends in crude oil prices, and broader global cues.
