The Indian stock market posted robust gains on Friday, April 17, with both benchmark indices settling 0.65% higher. According to reports from Mint, the Sensex climbed 505 points to close at 78,493.54, while the Nifty 50 advanced 157 points to settle at 24,353.55. As reported by Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, markets in the coming week are likely to remain highly news-driven, though with a positive bias. The sustainability of the upward movement will depend on continued follow-through buying and stability in external conditions. However, markets had already broken a six-week losing streak with their biggest weekly gain in five years, as the Nifty surged nearly 10 percent from April lows and the India VIX fell 38 percent this month amid cooling geopolitical tensions. Global market sentiment is riding a wave of optimism as geopolitical tensions ease following signals from U.S. President Trump about potential peace talks with Iran, with investors hopeful that a diplomatic resolution could stabilize oil prices and reduce market volatility.
The fourth quarter results have begun in full swing, with major companies scheduled to announce their results in the coming week. According to Mint reports, HCL Technologies, Infosys, Tech Mahindra, Havells, IndusInd Bank, M&M Finance, and Shriram Finance are among the companies announcing results. On Monday, market participants will initially react to results from banking heavyweights HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank. As noted by Ponmudi, the Q4 earnings season will take centre stage, driving stock-specific movements across sectors, with management commentary and earnings surprises playing a key role in shaping index direction. The earnings season opened constructively with TCS beating estimates with a 28.7% rise in net profit and 5.4% revenue growth, setting a positive tone for the sector. However, upcoming economic data might serve as a reality check, with analysts predicting slower business growth combined with rising consumer prices, a dual challenge that could weigh on equity markets.
The US-Iran peace deal appears to be under strain once again, with tensions resurfacing between the two sides. According to Mint reports, Iran has raised concerns over the slow progress of negotiations, even as Donald Trump continues to project optimism. Tehran has also reiterated that Washington is pushing what it considers to be excessive demands. The next round of US-Iran negotiations is scheduled to be held in Pakistan on Monday. These developments come amid renewed uncertainty surrounding the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran reversing its earlier move to reopen the Strait, citing ongoing US blockade. However, the two-week US-Iran ceasefire expires on April 22, creating a pressure point, while Iran's parliamentary speaker warned that the Strait will not stay open if the blockade continues. The May 1 War Powers Act deadline is a genuine catalyst for the US side to move toward a deal, with time pressure working in the market's favour over the next two weeks. A potential end to hostilities could lower energy costs, providing relief to economies heavily reliant on oil imports, including India, and could also bolster investor confidence in emerging markets like India, where trade and inflation are closely tied to global oil prices.
Global markets reacted positively on Saturday, with oil prices tumbling and equity indices surging after a US-Iran ceasefire eased fears around energy supply disruptions. As reported by Mint, Brent crude dropped sharply by 7.57% to close at $91.87 per barrel, down from its earlier level of $99.39. During the session, it touched a low of $86.08, further distancing itself from its 52-week peak of $114.81. Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude declined 9.63%, slipping $9.12 to settle at $85.57. In contrast, gold prices edged higher, rising 0.94% to $4,833.56. The falling oil prices is a direct macro tailwind for India, compressing the imported inflation risk that had been weighing on the RBI's room to manoeuvre and corporate margin forecasts. If crude stays between $85 and $90 a barrel through H1 FY27, the RBI's growth forecast looks conservative, with cost relief potentially pushing growth toward 7.2-7.3 percent.
Foreign investors have extended their selling streak in India's debt market in April, with outflows exceeding $1 billion so far this month. According to Mint reports, since April 1, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have offloaded over $1.23 billion worth of Indian debt, putting them on course for their sharpest monthly selloff since April 2025. V K Vijayakumar from Geojit Investments noted that in anticipation of stability in the rupee, FPIs turned buyers, though marginally, in the last three trading days. The RBI's FY27 GDP forecast was revised down from 7.6 percent to 6.9 percent in April, reflecting the conflict's impact on energy costs and sentiment. However, if crude prices continue dropping, the Q3 inflation spike may not be as severe, with energy price pass-through effects showing up in headline CPI by Q2 FY27.
Benchmark indices Nifty and Sensex are likely to open on a strong note on Monday, extending gains for a second straight session, after GIFT Nifty surged more than 250 points on Saturday. According to The Economic Times, markets had already ended the previous week over 2% higher on Friday, as bulls continued to recoup March losses amid improving sentiment. Hopes of an earlier-than-expected resolution to the Iran–US conflict, along with other supportive factors, have helped drive the ongoing recovery after the sharp selloff seen in March. Major Q4 earnings from HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank and Yes Bank were declared on Saturday, with HDFC Bank reporting a net profit of ₹19,221 crore (9% increase) and ICICI Bank posting ₹13,702 crore (8.5% year-on-year growth). Yes Bank showed strong performance with 44.8% year-on-year growth to ₹1,068.4 crore. The Indian rupee extended gains, closing at 92.9250 after touching a one-week high of 92.66, recovering from its record low of 95.21 per dollar on March 30. Foreign investors remained net buyers for the third consecutive session on Friday, purchasing shares worth ₹683 crore during an extremely volatile session.
