China has launched a record resale campaign, reloading and exporting 8-10 cargoes per month to other Asian buyers in March alone, marking the highest monthly volume on record. According to Ainvest News, year-to-date total reloads have reached 1.31 million tons, surpassing all previous annual records. This strategic market exit is directly capitalizing on the price spike caused by Middle East conflicts, with Asian LNG prices roughly doubling since the crisis began, now trading around $16/MMBtu. The campaign is shifting regional supply dynamics, as China's own LNG import needs have plateaued while domestic gas production and strategic reserves provide alternative supply sources. This deliberate market exit is creating pressure on other Asian importers, effectively shifting the traditional April-May peak restocking season to June and July.
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has downgraded its 2026 economic growth forecast for Asia and the Pacific to 4.7% from 5.1% earlier, as prolonged West Asia disruptions continue to fuel energy prices and tighten financial conditions across the region. According to ADB President Masato Kanda, the revised outlook represents a significant downward revision for growth and sharp increase in inflation following a special update to reflect the deepening crisis. The bank now forecasts regional growth at 4.7% for the current year and 4.8% for 2027, down from the 5.1% projected in its Asian Development Outlook (ADO) 2026 issued on April 10. Inflation in the region is now projected to accelerate to 5.2% this year before easing to 4.1% in 2027, significantly higher than the earlier projection of 3.6%.
Brent crude oil has soared to $119 per barrel as Iran continues blocking traffic through the Strait of Hormuz amid a US blockade on its ports. According to latest reports, the Pentagon has revealed that the Iran war has cost the US approximately $25 billion so far, with most expenses on munitions and military operations. The UN Development Program warns that the conflict could push over 30 million people into poverty across 160 countries, describing it as "development in reverse." Iranian Defense Ministry spokesman Reza Talaei-Nik warned that Washington "must abandon its illegal and irrational demands," while Tehran's armed forces have threatened "punishing" military action if the blockade continues.
The EU's energy bill has surged due to the Middle East conflict, with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen warning that fossil fuel import costs have risen by over €27 billion in just 60 days without any increase in supply. As reported by Bloomberg, only 55% of stocks on the MSCI Asia gauge are trading above their 200-day moving average, signaling weak investor conviction in the broader market. In Japan, the benchmark Topix index has underperformed the tech-heavy Nikkei 225 since the conflict, showing the rally's skewed performance. The ADB warns of systemic, long-lasting disruptions to global energy and trade networks, not just temporary volatility, as the conflict's economic effects have lasted longer than initially anticipated.
The divide is evident in profit expectations, with earnings-per-share forecast for MSCI Inc.'s info tech sector rising nearly 60% over the past three months, while estimates for the consumer discretionary sector have fallen by about 7%. According to Bloomberg, companies have begun warning of profit pressure from rising costs and supply-chain disruptions. Shares of Toyota Motor Corp. and Japan Petroleum Exploration Co. have fallen around 19% and 4% respectively since the war broke out. However, some companies are benefiting from the conflict - French oil giant TotalEnergies announced its net profit jumped 51% to $5.8 billion in the first quarter due to higher oil prices from the Iran war. The company's oil and gas production in Brazil, Libya and Australia made up for losses incurred in the Gulf region, which amounts to some 15% of its total oil and gas business.
Authorities in Japan and Thailand have slashed growth estimates as elevated oil prices cloud outlooks, according to Bloomberg. The UN warns that the war will have a profound impact on sub-Saharan African countries as well as certain Asian nations like Bangladesh and Cambodia. Former Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo warned that "high energy costs, a lack of fertilizer, will have an enormous impact in the months to come" on people in these countries. The ADB will remain an agile partner in protecting the region's economy, tracking fast-moving risks, and moving with urgency to scale up support. Upcoming earnings commentary may offer investors clearer clues on the war's impact, with Japanese airlines ANA Holdings Inc. and Japan Airlines Co. set to report results this week. Some companies, including Shin-Etsu Chemical Co., have withheld forecasts due to price fluctuations caused by the Middle East situation.
