India's fertility rate has fallen below the replacement level required to maintain a stable population, with the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) remaining stable at 2.0 in 2023-24 according to the National Family Health Survey-6 (NFHS-6) data, while the Sample Registration System (SRS) Statistical Report 2024 estimates it at 1.9, both below the replacement rate of 2.1 children per woman. According to Business Standard, this decline represents a fundamental shift in family planning decisions, moving from government-initiated family planning programmes to voluntary choices made by young couples navigating rising economic pressures. The current fertility decline is increasingly driven by couples wanting to save and invest more to secure a comfortable lifestyle, leading them to limit family size. As Business Standard reports, Shilpi, a 32-year-old working professional in Gurugram, exemplifies this trend, stating that "with rising school fees and the high cost of living in cities like Gurugram, having another child would make it that much harder financially."
Despite the fertility decline, India remains one of the world's youngest major economies with nearly two-thirds of its population still in the working-age bracket (66.4% aged 15-59), while those aged 60 and above make up only 9.7% of the population. According to the latest SRS report, India's crude birth rate has fallen dramatically from 36.9 births per 1,000 population in 1971 to 19.1 in 2022, with projections showing it further declining to 18.3 in 2024. Dr Sabine Kapasi, global health strategist and UN advisor, noted that "it marks an important demographic shift for India as the country moves from a phase of rapid population growth towards long-term stabilisation." However, experts warn that this demographic advantage alone will not guarantee economic growth, emphasizing the need for productive employment opportunities. The urban-rural gap remains visible, with fertility rates in urban India lower than rural areas, though both have steadily declined over time.
The economic pressures shaping fertility decisions are most visible in India's urban cities, where school fees have risen by 150-200 per cent over the last decade, outpacing inflation and household income growth, according to Sanghamitra Singh, Chief of Programmes at the Population Foundation of India. As reported by Business Standard, rising housing costs, healthcare expenses, childcare, transport and lifestyle aspirations have together increased the financial commitment associated with raising a child. The United Nations Population Fund's (UNFPA) State of World Population 2025 report found that reproductive choices in India are constrained by financial pressures (40%), housing challenges (22%), job insecurity (21%) and childcare responsibilities (18%). Dr Sunita Arora from Fortis La Femme, New Delhi, explained that "increased female literacy and educational attainment have played a crucial role by delaying marriage and childbearing. Greater participation of women in the workforce has also influenced family size preferences." Dr CM Lakshmana, Professor at the Population Research Centre, noted that "the current decline is increasingly being driven voluntarily by couples. Young adults want to save and invest more to secure a comfortable lifestyle, which often leads them to limit family size."
India's fertility transition is increasingly uneven across states, with significant regional variations in adoption rates. According to NFHS-6 (2023-24), Bihar continued to record the highest fertility rate at 2.7 children per woman, remaining well above the replacement level, followed by Jharkhand, Meghalaya and Uttar Pradesh, each reporting a TFR of 2.2. At the other end of the spectrum, Sikkim reported the lowest fertility rate at 1.0 child per woman, indicating a significantly advanced stage of demographic transition, while Arunachal Pradesh followed with 1.5, and Assam, Goa, Mizoram, Punjab and West Bengal each recorded 1.6 children per woman. This means future population growth is likely to become increasingly concentrated in northern and central states, while several southern and western states begin preparing for ageing populations and slower workforce growth. The transition has been uneven across regions, with southern and western states generally moving faster than parts of northern and central India.
Despite fertility falling below replacement level, India's population will continue to grow for several decades due to population momentum, as explained by Dr Sabine Kapasi. "India's population will continue to grow for several decades due to population momentum. The country still has a very large youth population entering reproductive age, which keeps the number of births high in absolute terms even as family sizes shrink." Dr Arora added that "population momentum is essentially the effect of past high fertility rates creating a large base of young people who contribute to future births. Therefore, India's population is expected to continue growing before eventually stabilising." India's median age remains relatively low compared with many developed economies, supporting continued demographic expansion. This means that even when fertility falls below replacement level, population growth does not stop immediately because of the large youth population entering reproductive ages. The focus for policymakers is gradually shifting from population growth to population management, with emphasis on creating productive employment for a large working-age population to fully realise the demographic dividend.
