India's fertility debate has entered a new phase as the country experiences declining fertility rates across most states. According to the Population Foundation of India, the national total fertility rate (TFR) reached 2.0 in NFHS-5 (2019-21), below the replacement level of 2.1, with NFHS-6 released this month confirming fertility remains around 2.0 nationally. However, this national average conceals significant regional variations, with Bihar recording a TFR of 2.7, while Andaman and Nicobar Islands have a TFR of 0.9. The rural-urban divide is equally pronounced, with India's rural TFR at 2.1 compared to urban TFR of 1.6, as reported by Business Standard.
The Population Foundation of India's projections indicate that India's population is expected to grow from 1.36 billion in 2021 to 1.59 billion in 2051, even as fertility declines from 2.0 to around 1.67. According to the report, annual births are projected to fall from 23 million to 17.1 million, while the median age is expected to rise from 29 to around 40. The data reveals that 20.1% of women aged 20-24 were married before 18, with figures above one in three in West Bengal, Bihar and Tripura. Total contraceptive prevalence among married women has risen to 69.1%, though modern method use has declined from 56.4% to 52.7%.
The fertility data highlights significant gender and health challenges across India. As reported by Business Standard, adolescent pregnancy remains almost unchanged nationally at 6.7%, with far higher rates in states such as Tripura, West Bengal, Jharkhand and Bihar. Unmet need for family planning remains 8.5% nationally, rising to 21% in Meghalaya, 14.4% in Bihar, 12.6% in Jharkhand and 10.8% in Uttar Pradesh. The report emphasizes that male sterilisation remains only 0.5% nationally, showing that the burden of contraception continues to fall overwhelmingly on women. These statistics reveal stories of gender injustice and poor investments in girls' education and agency.
Recent research examining 5,501 extended households from the India National Family Health Survey (1998-2015) reveals complex intergenerational power dynamics between co-residing mothers-in-law and daughters-in-law. According to the study, higher education and work for daughters-in-law decrease the likelihood of traditional MIL-dominant dynamics, but this effect is significant only in the most recent survey years (2015). The research shows that men's absence consistently increases the chance of traditional dynamics and does not facilitate egalitarian arrangements. This demonstrates a delayed positive effect of education on DIL's power, indicating that rapid expansion of education for younger women took time to translate into improved bargaining power capable of challenging patrilocal family norms.
The demographic transition requires different policy approaches across regions, with high-fertility regions needing voluntary, rights-based investments in girls' education, adolescent health, child marriage prevention, nutrition, contraception access and quality reproductive healthcare. For low-fertility regions, states such as Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra need to prepare for ageing, smaller families and rising care needs. The research highlights that arranged marriages are in decline but still dominate, with parents and older generations maintaining substantial power over younger generations through rigid kinship norms. To maximize the demographic dividend, India must invest in young people's education, skills, health and employment, expand women's agency, safety and workforce participation, and build systems for healthy and dignified ageing. The analysis concludes that population stabilization is not a crisis, declining fertility is not a moral failure, and ageing is not a disaster, but failure to prepare for these changes would constitute a serious policy failure.
