XRP is currently trading at $1.40, down 8% over the past week and 11% below its September 23 high, as the token fell below the $1.50 level, a former support area that now serves as immediate resistance. The token has been confined to a $1.46–$1.56 range and fell below that band, with the $1.40 level serving as critical support and $1.4850 as immediate resistance. According to latest analysis, an hourly close above $1.53 would be a potential signal toward $1.62, while the 50-week EMA represents the broader dividing line - multiple closes above it would strengthen the continuation case. The current range-bound trading reflects a market in consolidation, with buyers repeatedly defending the $1.40 floor while sellers have appeared above the current price level. Trading volume stands near $2.24 billion at the time of writing, supporting the technical outlook amid established rising momentum. The 200-day EMA sits at $1.28, providing longer-term support, though the 20-day EMA at $1.46 and 50-day EMA at $1.40 leave the short-term picture less supportive.
U.S. spot XRP ETFs recorded $3.14 million in net inflows on October 6, with Bitwise accounting for $10.55 million in inflows while Franklin's XRPZ recorded a $4.07 million withdrawal. Total cumulative inflows into U.S. spot XRP ETFs have reached $1.794 billion, while the funds held roughly $1.697 billion in net assets. Bitwise's positive session lifted its cumulative XRP ETF inflows to approximately $688 million, with Franklin's fund retaining about $501 million in historical net inflows despite Tuesday's withdrawal. However, broader selling has outweighed the reported ETF inflows, with the XRP net asset ratio standing at 1.79%, indicating the ETFs hold more XRP than their net asset value suggests. Since launch, investors have put $1.80 billion of cash into spot XRP ETFs, with the funds logging only one outflow day since September 18, a $3.28 million exit on October 2. On October 8, as XRP dipped to $1.32 during this week's crypto sell-off, Franklin's XRPZ still took in $8.17 million.
Technical indicators present a neutral outlook with RSI at 44, below its 50 midpoint but not in oversold territory. The MACD line sits at 0.008184, below its 0.027457 signal line, with the histogram negative at -0.019274, pointing to weakening momentum. On-balance volume is falling, which is weakening accumulation and a warning that rallies may lack participation. The Bollinger Bands show the lower band at $1.39, midline at $1.49, and upper band at $1.59, placing the $1.40 price near the lower edge of that range. Moving averages, Fibonacci, and support receive bullish scores, while Bollinger Bands, resistance, the trendline, MACD, and OBV are rated bearish. The analysis gives the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement as $1.43, but XRP at $1.40 is below that level, with the 50% retracement at $1.34 and 38.2% level at $1.26 broadly framing the lower areas traders may watch if support fails.
The immediate floor is $1.38, with primary support mapped at $1.31, then $1.25 and $1.12. The 200-day EMA at $1.28 sits between the $1.31 and $1.25 zones, making it another structural level to monitor if selling extends. Overhead, $1.50 and the ascending trendline near $1.51 form the first reclaim zone, with $1.53 the more decisive breakout threshold. The Bollinger lower band was $1.39, midline $1.49, and upper band $1.59, placing the $1.40 price near the lower edge of that range. The primary analysis also lists resistance at $1.66 before the prior swing high at $1.70, with the $1.43 Fibonacci level currently below the current price. A confirmed close above $1.53 would strengthen the XRP price breakout case and could put $1.62 in view, followed by the $1.66–$1.70 resistance zone. If price rejects $1.50–$1.53, the immediate test is whether $1.38 holds, with a decisive break below exposing $1.31–$1.34 first and $1.25 next.
Exchange outflows have held steady through the recent price decline, with Glassnode's Exchange Net Position Change showing negative readings of approximately -1.53 billion XRP around September 25 when XRP was near $1.57, and -1.58 billion XRP on October 8 when XRP was near $1.38. This indicates that holders are not rushing to sell despite the price drop. Over the past 30 days, the funds added less than 100 million XRP, meaning most of the 1.58 billion XRP that left exchanges was moved by someone other than the funds. The Canary's XRPC fund shows a 31% gap, with assets worth $335.7 million against inflows of $486.8 million. On October 8, XRP slipped under $1.37, the 0.618 Fibonacci level, then closed back above it, with steady outflows and ETF buying helping that quick reclaim. A daily close under $1.37, followed by a drop below $1.30, could turn patient holders into sellers, opening $1.20, and even $0.92 if the wider market weakens.
