Coinbase has secured a $150,000 settlement from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission after the regulator lost nearly 11 months of former Chair Gary Gensler's text messages. The settlement stems from Coinbase's Freedom of Information Act lawsuit against the SEC, with the regulator agreeing to pay $150,000 and revise its record-retention policies. According to Coinbase Chief Legal Officer Paul Grewal, the litigation revealed that the agency had lost text messages exchanged by senior officials during the height of its enforcement campaign against the crypto industry. As reported by The Wall Street Journal, the lawsuit uncovered the loss of nearly a year's worth of communications involving senior SEC officials, with the records disappearing during the period when the regulator pursued more than 100 crypto-related enforcement actions. The SEC has not publicly characterized the settlement as an admission of wrongdoing.
Coinbase shares fell 4% to $169 on July 22 as the CLARITY Act's passage odds dropped significantly from the previous day's peak. According to Polymarket data, the bill's chance of passing before the end of 2026 has dropped 15 percentage points to 37%, down from 52% on July 21. The decline stems from disagreements over how proposed ethics restrictions should be enforced, with President Donald Trump's agreement to include ethics provisions in the market structure bill failing to secure sufficient support. Senator Angela Alsobrooks described the White House proposal as an "unserious offer" and stated that she would vote against the bill if the current language reached the Senate floor. Her opposition is particularly significant because she was one of only two Democrats who helped advance the legislation through the Senate Banking Committee in May, leaving sponsors without a clear path to the supermajority required to move the legislation forward.
COIN opened at $172.25 on July 22, reached $174.96 before falling as low as $168.32 and trading near $169.11. The latest decline brought the stock back below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $170.89, making that level the first resistance buyers need to recover. On the daily chart, the stock had previously closed above $170 for the first time since June 2, but the rally lost momentum as Washington disagreements returned. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 53.68, above its moving average of 49.70 and well below overbought territory, giving buyers room to extend the recovery if the stock retakes $170.89. Above that barrier, the Fibonacci retracement identifies $180.70 as the next resistance, followed by $190.51 and $202.65. A close above the $180.70 midpoint would strengthen the recovery case and place the psychological $200 area close to the 23.6% retracement.
Coinbase has launched SUI staking with a one-token minimum and estimated annual rewards of 1.4% to 3.3% as the token tests resistance near $0.78. The exchange announced the rollout on July 22, giving eligible customers a way to stake SUI and collect rewards without moving their tokens away from the exchange. According to Coinbase, eligible users can begin with as little as 1 SUI, with rewards distributed after each 24-hour network epoch through automatic compounding. The service is presented as a direct account feature, though access depends on the customer's location, with regional restrictions still applying in some jurisdictions. Alongside the product rollout, Coinbase secured a $150,000 settlement from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission over missing communications from former Chair Gary Gensler, ending the exchange's Freedom of Information Act lawsuit.
Raymond James has initiated coverage with a $158 price target, roughly 6.5% below COIN's quoted level near $169, citing subdued market activity that is expected to weigh on the company's performance. However, the brokerage estimates that Coinbase's expanding product range, including prediction markets, could eventually produce more than $100 million in annualized revenue. Oppenheimer previously lowered its Coinbase target to $209, also citing soft spot-trading volumes during the crypto downturn. Despite cautious stock forecasts, attention now turns to Coinbase's second-quarter results scheduled for July 30, with analysts expecting earnings of $0.19 per share, compared with a loss of $1.49 per share in the first quarter. Bitcoin's recovery to around $66,000 may provide additional catalysts because Coinbase earns part of its revenue from crypto trading. The stock had closed at $175.85 one day earlier before trading between roughly $166 and $175 during the next session.
