Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong has made a significant shift in his Bitcoin outlook, stating his 'instinct is we probably have bottomed at this point, maybe at the sixty K number' while cautioning that 'nobody can say for sure.' Speaking on X on June 15, Armstrong reaffirmed his long-term Bitcoin thesis, writing 'I'm as bullish as ever on Bitcoin, and still long (as always).' His latest comments come as Bitcoin traded above $66,000 on Monday, up nearly 3% over 24 hours, after the US and Iran reached a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Bitcoin has rebounded to above $66,000 after dipping below $60,000, with the token touching a low near $59,743 on June 5 - its weakest level since October 2024. Armstrong pointed to bitcoin's four-year halving cycle, which has historically alternated between bull and bear markets at roughly regular intervals, as a framework for reading the current drawdown. Bitcoin is now roughly 50% below its October 2025 all-time high near $126,000.
Despite Armstrong's bullish prediction, on-chain analysis reveals conflicting signals about Bitcoin's bottom formation. According to BeInCrypto's proprietary BTC Macro Bottom Dashboard, Bitcoin trades near $65,000 today, with the dashboard scoring 50.4 on its 0 to 100 scale - neutral territory despite showing value indicators. The model's macro dislocation gauge sits at 89.55, among its highest levels, suggesting Bitcoin trades well below what the macro backdrop would support. Bitcoin's correlation to the S&P 500 and US dollar basket stands at 0.79, indicating strong linkage that typically benefits risk assets during market recoveries. However, Bitcoin negative sentiment, measured by Santiment, stayed calm through the June low at near 88, contrasting sharply with the 1,908 spike on February 5 that marked a previous capitulation low. Long-term holder behavior shows NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) at +0.22, indicating holders remain in profit throughout this cycle, unlike the -0.24 reading at the November 2022 low that preceded major bottoms.
Bitcoin climbed above $65,500 after a U.S.-Iran deal eased oil and inflation fears across global markets, as reported by crypto.news. BTC traded near $65,759 at press time, up about 2.2% over 24 hours, with a daily high near $65,893. The rebound gave Bitcoin its highest level in almost two weeks, though crypto.news noted that BTC needs stronger volume above $68,000 to confirm a wider recovery. Galaxy has expanded its presence in data-center infrastructure, developing 'the largest single-campus data center in the United States' - a 1.6-gigawatt facility in West Texas. The project is currently about half leased and could be fully committed by July 4 or by the end of summer, according to Novogratz. The data-center business now accounts for more than half of Galaxy's value, with more than 1,000 construction workers currently on site.
Galaxy CEO Mike Novogratz contrasted the AI-driven wealth boom with waning interest in digital assets, stating 'Nobody cares about crypto right now.' Speaking on the All Things Market podcast, Novogratz pointed to soaring New York Knicks Finals ticket prices, ranging from $75,000 for court-side seats to several thousand dollars for upper-level seats, as evidence of growing disposable income among investors benefiting from the AI boom. 'This AI revolution is real,' Novogratz said, adding that firms like Anthropic and SpaceX are creating a new wave of wealth that would create 'a zillion new millionaire(s) and centi millionaires.' He noted that capital is increasingly flowing toward AI rather than digital assets, with crypto losing investor attention as AI dominates market narratives.
The current Bitcoin price action presents a clear split between macro value indicators and on-chain behavior patterns. While macro dislocation and strong correlation argue Bitcoin price is cheap, neither sentiment nor long-term holders show the panic that confirms a bottom. CryptoQuant pegs a deeper value zone near Bitcoin's realized price of about $53,600, roughly where a capitulation flush could register. Armstrong's 'instinct is we probably have bottomed' comes as a question mark sits at mid-2026 on his chart of Bitcoin's four-year cycles. Confirming Armstrong's Bitcoin prediction needs that missing flush, with NUPL potentially falling close to zero and negative sentiment spiking toward February levels. The June low near $59,291 is the line that matters, separating a confirmed bottom from a deeper flush toward $53,600 that would finally trigger capitulation. Armstrong's conviction extends beyond short-term price movements, with projections that 10% of global GDP will run on crypto by 2030.
