According to a new VanEck report, bitcoin miners pivoting to AI infrastructure face significant financial challenges. The asset manager estimates the sector faces a combined near-term funding gap of roughly $50 billion, with long-term capital needs of about $221 billion if current development plans proceed. VanEck investment analyst Griffin MacMaster and head of digital asset research Matthew Sigel noted that the industry has so far delivered only about 25% of the AI and high-performance computing (HPC) capacity it has leased to customers. The gap between announced capacity and actual delivery is expected to decline further before improving, as large-scale construction projects kick off in 2027 and 2028.
As reported by VanEck, the market is increasingly rewarding companies that have secured and energized AI infrastructure capacity while punishing those still relying on unproven pipeline projections. Companies with physical leases in hand, including Cipher Mining (CIFR), Hut 8 (HUT), and TeraWulf (WULF), are commanding valuations above 10 times gross energized power, while names like Marathon Digital (MARA) and CleanSpark (CLSK), which remain more closely tied to Bitcoin mining with limited contracted AI capacity, are trading at just 2-6x that same metric. "For now, we find that the market is paying for contracted and energized capacity, while discounting everything still in the pipeline," the analysts wrote. VanEck argues that signing contracts is only the beginning, with execution capabilities becoming the dominant valuation driver going forward.
According to the report, following the collapse in mining profitability after the 2024 halving, many operators began repurposing their power infrastructure to support AI workloads. Companies like Core Scientific (CORZ), TeraWulf (WULF), Hut 8 (HUT), and Cipher Mining (CIFR) have all announced plans to lease power and data center capacity to AI and high-performance computing customers. Marathon Digital (MARA), Riot Platforms (RIOT), and CleanSpark (CLSK) are pursuing hybrid strategies that maintain bitcoin mining operations while exploring AI opportunities. VanEck's deal tracker signals a busy second half of 2026, with multiple companies including Bitdeer (BTDR), HIVE Digital (HIVE), Riot Platforms (RIOT), and Core Scientific (CORZ) in various stages of active or advanced lease negotiations. WULF is described as in "advanced negotiations" on a 480MW site in Kentucky, expected to land a customer in the second quarter.
Despite bitcoin's decline of about 24% since January, bitcoin miners have seen largely positive stock performance. As reported by VanEck, RIOT is up nearly 94% year-to-date, while CIFR is 62% higher. Companies with Bitcoin treasury holdings, including MARA (35,303 BTC), CLSK (13,561 BTC), and HUT (13,696 BTC), can leverage Bitcoin monetization strategies to partially fund construction. However, companies like REN, which carries a large near-term funding need with no BTC treasury, face narrower funding options through dilutive equity issuances or incremental debt. The fresh AI narrative has helped drive significant stock moves in the crypto sector over the past year, with investors rewarding companies with valuations that increasingly reflect their AI potential rather than their mining businesses.
VanEck argues that valuations remain difficult because investors are pricing businesses caught between declining mining operations and AI businesses that have yet to generate meaningful cash flow. The firm identifies HIVE, Bitdeer (BTDR), Keel and IREN as names with potential upside if they secure additional contracts, while suggesting companies such as MARA, CLSK and RIOT remain more closely tied to bitcoin's price performance. The analysis shows that a drop in Bitcoin to $50,000 would erase roughly 45% of MARA's equity value and nearly 50% of HIVE's, while shaving just 4% off HUT's, underscoring how poorly the "single BTC trade" framing captures the increasingly divergent nature of the group. VanEck expects valuations to eventually migrate away from megawatt counts toward delivery ratios, unit economics, and discounted cash flow models, at which point these companies will begin to resemble data center REITs more than miners.
