Gold is poised for its fourth consecutive weekly decline, with the precious metal falling 4.63% during the week amid persistent dollar strength and Federal Reserve rate hike expectations. US gold futures for August delivery fell $149.6, or 3.5% during the week to close at $4,096.3 per ounce, while silver slumped $7.13, or 10.7% to $59.67 per ounce in New York. On the Multi Commodity Exchange, gold futures for August delivery fell ₹3,041, or 2.06% to settle at ₹1.44 lakh per 10 grams, while silver for the September contract plunged ₹15,269, or 6.4% to ₹2.23 lakh per kilogram. Currently, gold futures stand at ₹1,44,199 and silver futures at ₹2,22,100 per kg, with the rebound towards the end of the week coming after bullion slumped to its lowest since November 2025 earlier this week. The price of 10 grams of 24-carat gold was at ₹1,39,878 on Thursday, down from ₹1,46,664 seen on Monday market opening, according to data published by the India Bullion and Jewellers Association (IBJA). Volatility in technology stocks and concerns around artificial intelligence prompted some investors to seek safe-haven assets, supporting the yellow metal's rebound despite the overall bearish trend.
Major investment banks and rating agencies are significantly reducing their gold price forecasts as the precious metal continues its decline, with gold having shed over 25% since hitting a record high of $5,608 an ounce on January 29. ING Think expects gold to average $4,300/oz in the third quarter of 2026 and $4,600/oz in the fourth quarter, down from its previous forecasts of $4,850/oz and $5,000/oz, respectively. J.P. Morgan maintains a more bullish outlook, expecting gold to average $5,300 an ounce in the third quarter and $6,000 in the fourth quarter, lowered from its earlier outlook of $5,900 and $6,300, respectively. BMI research agency forecasts an annual average of $4,600/oz for 2026, with near-term price dynamics likely to be driven by Fed policy signals, rendering the precious metal susceptible to a repricing of market expectations and renewed dollar strength. Despite the rebound, gold has lost roughly 29% from its record high of $5,594.82 seen on January 29, 2026, as inflation fuelled by the US-Iran war ramped up rate-hike bets.
A gauge of the US dollar has gained 0.8% this week, making precious metals priced in the greenback more expensive for buyers in other currencies and contributing to the precious metal's decline. Federal Reserve policymakers have signaled growing support for higher borrowing costs, with new chair Kevin Warsh adopting a hawkish tone at his first rate-setting meeting last week. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, rose by 0.4% in May, easing immediate Fed rate-hike concerns. Markets, however, continue to price in a 64% probability of a further tightening in September as per the CME FedWatch Tool, with Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams pushing back his expectation of getting inflation back to the Fed's 2% target. Elevated Treasury yields have reduced the appeal of non-yielding assets such as gold and silver, reinforcing the precious metal's bearish trajectory despite some safe-haven demand from technology stock volatility. Crude oil prices corrected sharply by nearly 10%, which eased inflation concerns, reducing gold's appeal as an inflation hedge, and investors continued to favour the US dollar over bullion.
COMEX Gold continues to trade with a corrective bias with prices currently hovering above $4,000 support area, according to analysts. Immediate resistance is placed at $4,200 to $4,240, followed by $4,360 to $4,400, while on the downside, $3,900-3,800 remains the immediate support. For MCX Gold, immediate resistance is placed at ₹1,46,000 to ₹1,47,000, followed by ₹1,49,000 to ₹1,50,000, with downside support at ₹1,40,000-₹1,39,000. Immediate resistance for MCX Silver is placed at ₹2,30,000 to ₹2,32,000, while a break below ₹2,10,000 level could extend the decline toward ₹2,0,000 to ₹1,98,000. Gold is currently stuck in a technical "no-man's land," trudging above the 200-day moving average around $4,340 and capped, for now, below the 50-day moving average at $4,730/oz, according to J.P. Morgan's Greg Shearer. "Amid this sideways plod, and with growing worries that the Fed might have to respond to energy-driven inflation with hikes, gold is on the back burner for most investors at the moment," he noted. Analysts said bullion prices will largely hinge on the upcoming US economic data, Federal Reserve officials and the direction of the US dollar.
