Gold has experienced a 30% correction from its all-time high of $5,602 per ounce recorded in January 2026, falling to a low of $3,942 per ounce. According to the latest DSP Netra report, this correction is milder than several previous gold downturns. The steepest correction came after the January 1980 peak, when gold prices plunged 71%, taking 19 years and 7 months to reach a durable bottom, while reclaiming the previous all-time high took another 28 years. Following the December 1974 peak, gold corrected 49%, reaching its bottom in nearly 1 year and 8 months. The current cycle crossed the 25% drawdown mark within two months of the January 2026 peak, but as the correction is still underway, the durable bottom and eventual recovery period are yet to be determined.
Silver has corrected more sharply than gold during the current cycle, falling 54% from its all-time high of $121.6 per ounce in January 2026 to a low of $55.6 per ounce. The DSP Netra report shows that even this correction remains smaller than some of silver's historic downturns. After the January 1980 peak, silver tumbled 93%, taking more than 11 years to reach a durable bottom and over 31 years to recover its previous high. The April 2011 cycle witnessed a 77% decline, while the August 1975 correction was comparatively milder at 27%. Like gold, silver crossed the 25% drawdown threshold within a month of its January 2026 peak, with the data highlighting that the current cycle is still evolving and making it too early to determine when prices will establish a durable bottom or recover their previous highs.
Dollar inflows through the RBI's FCNR(B) deposit scheme are adding additional pressure on domestic gold prices, with the rupee appreciating from around ₹97 to ₹94.6 against the dollar following the central bank's measures. Domestic gold prices have fallen 6% to ₹146,344 per 10g on July 3 from ₹1,55,581 on June 4, according to data from the India Bullion and Jewellers Association (IBJA). The yellow metal is also down 14% from its record high of ₹1,69,349 recorded in March. Shweta Rajani, Head – Mutual Funds at Anand Rathi Wealth, noted that when the RBI introduced a similar scheme in 2013, FCNR(B) deposits attracted about $25-30 billion, helping stabilise the currency. NRIs have booked nearly $7 billion in FCNR(B) deposits in June alone, with overall inflows projected to reach $50 billion by October.
Gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset has slowed after a strong rally this year, with profit-booking and easing geopolitical tensions leading to market reassessment. As per The Economic Times, gold gained nearly 25-30% over the past year as investors sought protection from inflation, geopolitical risks and uncertainty around interest rates, but that rally has now given way to profit-booking. Gold ETFs have seen some outflows, and the dollar has remained firm, with investors who bought near the top now questioning whether the asset is still performing its expected role in volatile markets. Paresh Bhagat, chairman of Mangal Keshav Financial Services, noted that the recent pause has been driven by profit-booking, easing geopolitical tensions and investors reassessing their allocation after strong gains. He emphasized that gold has not lost its appeal as a safe-haven asset - it has simply cooled off after a strong rally.
Comex gold closed almost 12% lower to settle at $4,021.8 by the end of June, marking the worst quarterly loss in 13 years. The fall has damaged the bullish price structure in Comex gold, with the breach of the lower end of the trading range of $4,400 indicating that the short-term trend has turned negative. The short-term outlook remains bleak with likely drop to $3,750-$3,850 range until the price closes above $4,410. Similarly, MCX gold slid 11.49% to settle at ₹1,42,546/10-gram, with the fall below the lower end of prior trading range of ₹1,53,000-₹1,55,000 signaling weakness and likely drop to ₹1,35,000-₹1,40,000 range in the near term. MCX silver closed on a weak note at ₹2,28,665/kg or a 16.58% fall, with the price breaching prior support level at ₹2,80,000 and potential drop to ₹1,95,000-₹2,05,000.
