Investors placed a significant bet worth approximately $900 million on falling oil prices around 20 minutes before Iran's foreign minister announced on April 17 that the Strait of Hormuz was open. According to reports from Reuters, between 1224 GMT and 1225 GMT, investors sold a combined 7,990 lots of Brent crude futures, based on LSEG data. At 1245 GMT, Iran's foreign minister posted on X that passage for all commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz was declared completely open for the remaining period of ceasefire, in line with the ceasefire in Lebanon.
The announcement pushed crude down as much as 11% on the day in the minutes that followed, as reported by Reuters. This follows a pattern of similar large, well-timed trades in recent months that have drawn concern from U.S. lawmakers and legal experts that decisions around war and diplomacy can give some traders an edge in volatile and opaque derivatives markets.
According to Reuters reports, on April 7, bets worth around $950 million took place just hours ahead of the U.S. and Iran announcing a two-week ceasefire. On March 23, investors sold $500 million in oil futures 15 minutes before U.S. President Donald Trump's announcement that he would delay attacks on Iran's energy infrastructure, triggering a 15% drop in the crude price. These patterns suggest a consistent pattern of large oil futures trades occurring just before major policy shifts related to the Iran war.
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission is investigating a series of oil futures trades, including those on March 23 and April 7, that were placed shortly before major policy shifts by Trump related to the war in Iran, as reported by Reuters. A person familiar with the matter confirmed this investigation on April 13, highlighting the regulatory scrutiny surrounding these large, well-timed oil trades. The investigation has escalated to include formal requests for detailed trader identity data, signaling heightened regulatory scrutiny of informed oil-futures trading.
