Traders placed $430 million in bets on a drop in crude oil prices just 15 minutes before US President Donald Trump announced he would extend a ceasefire with Iran on Tuesday. According to Reuters reports, between 1954 and 1956 GMT on Tuesday, 4,260 lots of sales hit the oil market, worth a combined $430 million based on the prevailing Brent futures price. Trump announced the ceasefire extension at 2010 GMT, creating immediate market reaction. As reported by Stocktwits, Trump later clarified on Truth Social that despite the ceasefire extension, the military blockade in the Strait of Hormuz would continue.
The Brent market settles at 1830 GMT, meaning these trades took place in post-settlement hours when volumes are usually extremely limited. As reported by Reuters, the trades did not have significant impact on the price, which edged down to $100.66 a barrel from $100.91 before the trades occurred. After Trump's announcement, Brent crude futures fell to a low of $96.83 in the minute that followed, and were last trading at $99.2 a barrel at 1200 GMT on Wednesday. According to Stocktwits, oil futures fluctuated in Tuesday's overnight trading, with WTI crude futures down about 0.07% to $89.61 a barrel and Brent crude futures down about 0.02% to $98.46 a barrel.
This represents the third time this month and the fourth total instance of large, well-timed directional bets on oil prices made shortly before major announcements on the Iran war. According to Reuters data, a combined wager in March was worth $500 million, while April's bets have together totalled some $2.1 billion. Previous significant bets included $500 million on March 23, $950 million on April 7, and $760 million on April 17. As reported by Stocktwits, US stock futures inched higher in Tuesday's overnight trading as markets priced in President Trump's announcement of a ceasefire extension with Iran, with Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.68%, S&P 500 futures up 0.53%, and Dow Jones futures up 0.47%.
The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission is investigating a series of oil futures trades, including those on March 23 and April 7, that were placed shortly before major policy shifts by Trump related to the war in Iran, as reported by Reuters on April 15. The investigation focuses on the timing and magnitude of these strategic trades that have occurred consistently before significant developments in Iran-related policy announcements.
