Raw sugar futures on ICE rose 0.7% to 19.34 cents per lb, recovering somewhat after Monday's 5.6% Brazilian currency-driven selloff. According to Reuters, raw sugar settled up 0.13 cent, or 0.7%, at 19.47 cents per lb, extending its recovery from the previous session. Sugar production in Brazil's key center-south region fell 27.1% in the first half of October from a year earlier to 1.87 million metric tons, as reported by the Agriculture Ministry on Wednesday. White sugar rose 0.6% to $522.40 a metric ton, with the latest data showing sugar prices rebounding to about 19.63 cents a pound. As per broker ADMIS, the Brazilian currency move does not take away from the tightening supply outlook with poor crops in Europe, India and Brazil this year.
The country's sugar areas have been battling excess El Nino-linked rains, and more are forecast for this weekend and for next week. As reported by Reuters, broker AMDIS noted that sugar has been supported since July by declining forecasts for global supply, with heat and drought damaging Europe's beet crop and a lacklustre monsoon lowering expectations for India's cane crop. The weather disruption continues to impact Brazil's key growing regions, with rainfall still heavy in major producing areas. However, broker and consultant Michael J Nugent reports that the weather in Brazil remains favourable for arabica, with above-normal moisture forecast across the main growing regions.
ICE arabica coffee futures fell 2.6% to $2.8605 per lb at 1243 GMT, hitting their lowest in 2-1/2 weeks at $2.8515. According to Reuters, weighing on coffee are signs the relentless drawdown in ICE-certified stocks might be moderating, with data showing just over 36,000 bags of coffee have arrived at exchange warehouses and are awaiting grading. The weak Brazilian real continues to weigh on coffee, as the currency has not recovered much from Monday's 9% fall in the wake of President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's election win. The weak real encourages mills, farmers and exporters in top grower Brazil to sell dollar-priced commodity futures because it raises their returns in local currency terms.
Robusta coffee dipped 0.2% to $3,214 a metric ton, having hit its lowest since March 2024 on Monday. As reported by Reuters, Robusta is under pressure overall as the harvest gets under way in top grower Vietnam and exchange stocks continue to rise. The harvest pressure is contributing to the overall decline in robusta prices despite favorable weather conditions in other growing regions.
London cocoa fell 1% to £4,299 per ton, while New York cocoa fell 1.3% to $5,504 a ton. Analysts at Expana have reduced their 2026/27 output forecast for top grower Ivory Coast by 40,000 tons to 1.83 million tons, citing "moisture stress impacting not only pod loads but also the overall health of the trees," according to Reuters. The report was edited by Shilpi Majumdar, Shailesh Kuber, Tasim Zahid and Andrea Ricci.
