Raw sugar futures on ICE closed up 0.13 cent, or 0.9%, at 14.06 cents per lb on Friday, recovering from Thursday's four-week lows. According to Reuters, the market had hit its lowest since late April on Thursday before staging the recovery. The weekly performance showed a 4.3% decline, reflecting continued volatility in the sugar market. July NY world sugar #11 (SBN26) closed up 0.13 (+0.93%) on Friday, while Aug London ICE white sugar #5 (SWQ26) closed up 12.50 (+2.94%). ICE white sugar futures linked to beet have eased slightly, with front months closing around 425–435 USD/t after a daily loss of roughly 4–6 USD/t (about -1%), with August 2026 at 425.7 USD/t and October 2026 at 425.4 USD/t.
Asian rice prices posted their biggest monthly jump in nearly two decades in May, with Thailand white rice rallying 20% - the most in a month since data began in 2008. Rice futures on the Chicago Board of Trade also jumped 15% this month, as war-driven surges in energy and fertilizer costs threaten production across import-reliant Asia. According to the International Rice Research Institute, nitrogen fertilizer prices have surged 40-50% since the war began in February, forcing farmers to skip planting rounds. Tran Van Be Bay, a 60-year-old farmer in southern Vietnam, plans to skip one crop round due to rising costs and hot weather conditions. The Philippines has already warned that a strong El Niño could slash paddy rice production by 700,000 tons or 3.5% of the annual production target, with any reductions in Asia's output likely to impact global supply.
Coffee prices settled sharply lower on Friday after updated weather forecasts called for dry conditions next week in Brazil's coffee-growing regions, allowing the coffee harvest to resume after being delayed this week by heavy rains. July arabica coffee (KCN26) closed down 8.65 (-3.15%) and July ICE robusta coffee (RMN26) closed down 78 (-2.19%). Coffee prices have ratcheted lower over the past month, with arabica falling to a 1.5-year nearest-futures low last Tuesday, amid an improved global supply outlook. On May 7, the Coffee Trading Academy projected Brazil's 2026/27 coffee harvest will increase by 12% y/y to 71.4 million bags. The Bloomberg Agriculture Index headed for a modest decline, led by losses in wheat, corn, sugar, coffee and livestock, with only partial offsets from gains in soybean products and cocoa.
The biggest driver behind the monthly decline in the commodity complex was energy, with the BCOM Energy TR Index heading for a loss of around 8%. Brent crude, WTI crude, diesel and gasoline all suffered double-digit declines as growing optimism that the United States and Iran may be able to extend their ceasefire agreement created expectations for a gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. While significant hurdles remain, the market is reacting to the prospect of a supply surge once hundreds of tankers loaded with crude oil and refined fuels are released from the Persian Gulf. However, ADNOC's chief executive said it would take at least four months to return to 80% of pre-conflict flows, with full recovery potentially not arriving until the second quarter of 2027. Following the record 43% monthly surge back in March, Brent crude is heading for its largest monthly decline since April last year, with prices falling towards a five-week low, yet still higher by around 29% since Operation Epic Fury began three months ago.
Industrial metals bucked the broader weakness, with the BCOM Industrial Metals Index gaining around 6%, led by copper, zinc and aluminium. Copper remains the standout performer, with COMEX copper trading at a rising premium to London as traders continue moving metal into the United States amid renewed speculation about future import tariffs. The result has been a surge in COMEX-monitored inventories while simultaneously tightening availability elsewhere. Attention is increasingly focused on the June 30 deadline for the US Commerce Secretary's review of the domestic copper market. Beyond tariffs, copper continues to benefit from a powerful long-term demand story: electric vehicles, power grids, renewable energy installations, battery storage, cooling infrastructure and AI data centres all require substantial amounts of copper. Aluminium also performed well as markets assessed the potential impact of ongoing disruptions to Gulf exports, with the conflict affecting a wide range of industrial commodities including aluminium, fertilizers, petrochemicals and sulphur-related products essential for mining and manufacturing.
