The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has officially confirmed that the southwest monsoon has advanced into parts of the southeast Arabian Sea, southwest and southeast Bay of Bengal, the Andaman Sea, the entire Nicobar Islands and parts of the Andaman Islands, including Sri Vijaya Puram on May 16, 2026. This represents a significant advance of nearly six days ahead of its normal schedule, with the IMD stating that all the criteria are satisfied for the advance of the southwest monsoon over the region. The monsoon advancement into these regions marks an early start to the four-month rainy season across the country. According to the latest IMD update, conditions remain favourable for the monsoon to advance further into some more parts of the southeast Arabian Sea, southwest and southeast Bay of Bengal during the next three-four days. The remaining parts of the Andaman Islands and Andaman Sea, along with some parts of east-central Bay of Bengal, may also witness the onset of the monsoon during this period.
The IMD forecasts the southwest monsoon will set in over Kerala on May 26, marking an early arrival compared to the normal June 1 timeline. According to IMD's forecast released on Friday, the monsoon onset is expected with a model error of plus or minus four days, meaning it could occur four days before or after the predicted date. This represents a significant advance from last year's monsoon onset on May 24. The monsoon, which normally arrives in Kerala around June 1 and advances northwards to cover other parts of the country, marks the beginning of the four-month southwest monsoon season (June to September).
The IMD reported that conditions remain favourable for the monsoon to advance into additional parts of the southeast Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal, remaining areas of the Andaman Sea and Islands, and parts of the east-central Bay of Bengal over the next three to four days. Meteorologists attributed the early advance to increased rainfall activity over the Nicobar Islands and adjoining Andaman Sea during the past two days, along with strengthening westerly winds and favourable Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) patterns indicating strong convective cloud formation. The department noted that as the monsoon progresses northward, relief from scorching summer temperatures is experienced over the areas. The normal date for monsoon onset over the south Andaman Sea, Port Blair in the Andaman and Nicobar islands, is May 22, making this year's advance even more significant.
The IMD has issued a warning for fishermen due to expected squally weather conditions over several coastal and sea regions. Wind speeds of 40-50 kmph, gusting up to 60 kmph, are likely to hit along the Kerala coast and Lakshadweep area, while stronger winds of 45-55 kmph, gusting up to 65 kmph, are expected along the south Somalia coast. Over the Bay of Bengal, similar conditions are likely to prevail over the Gulf of Mannar, the south Bay of Bengal, the east-central Bay of Bengal, and the Andaman Sea between May 16 and 19. Fishermen have been advised not to venture into these areas during the warning period.
The IMD projects India might receive below-normal rainfall this year during the monsoon season, with the country likely to get 80 cm of rainfall in the monsoon months, compared to the long-period average (1971-2020) of seasonal rainfall at 87 cm. According to IMD's monthly forecast on May 1, the department said this could be due to the emergence of El Niño conditions, which cause less rainfall in the country. The IMD noted that El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-neutral conditions over the equatorial Pacific were evolving towards El Niño conditions.
