The **Indian stock market benchmark indices are likely to see a cautious opening on Monday, following mixed global market cues, amid multiple uncertainties including the India Meteorological Department's forecast of monsoon rainfall at around 90% of the long-term average. The Gift Nifty was trading around 23,725 level, signaling a flattish opening for the Indian benchmark index. This follows Friday's sharp decline where the Sensex tanked 1,092.06 points, or 1.44%, to close at 74,775.74, while the Nifty 50 settled 359.40 points, or 1.50%, lower at 23,547.75, as reported by Livemint.
The upcoming week is expected to remain highly sensitive to macroeconomic developments, geopolitical news flow, and central-bank commentary. The focus is now shifting to the RBI MPC decision slated for 5-June, with the central bank expected to maintain a cautious stance amid rupee weakness, elevated bond yields, and inflationary risks. According to Emkay Global Research, the significant improvement in India's outlook for the external account over the past two weeks, driven by 22% correction in Brent crude prices on hopes of a US-Iran deal, obviates the need for a rate hike. Key economic data includes Industrial Production (IIP) data for April 2026 scheduled for release on 1 June, and the final HSBC Manufacturing PMI reading for May, which will provide important insights into manufacturing and economic momentum.
Sensex slipped below the 20-day SMA of 75,900, and post-breakdown, selling pressure intensified. For the week, Sensex fell 0.85% and formed a long bearish candle on the weekly charts, which supports further weakness from current levels. According to Kotak Securities, as long as Sensex trades below the 50-day SMA of 75,300, the weak sentiment is likely to continue. On the downside, the index could slip to 74,100 - 73,800, with further downward movement potentially dragging it to 73,300 - 73,100. On the upside, above the 50-day SMA of 75,300, a bounce back could extend till 75,900, and if Sensex crosses 75,900, it could move towards 76,500 - 76,800.
Nifty 50 formed a bearish candle on the daily chart with the close near the session's low, indicating weak sentiment. For the week, the index declined 0.72%, forming a bearish candle with an upper wick on the weekly timeframe. According to Master Capital Services Ltd, Nifty 50 continues to trade below all key moving averages, reflecting a cautious near-term outlook, while the RSI at 43 indicates subdued momentum. A crucial support zone is placed around 23,250 – 23,300, and a decisive breach below this range could accelerate selling pressure toward the 23,000 mark. On the upside, 23,800 remains a key resistance level and coincides with the 21-day EMA, with the broader market stance remaining cautious until Nifty 50 decisively reclaims and sustains above the 24,000 level.
Global stocks in the Asia-Pacific region are up in early trading on Monday, with Korea's Kospi surging nearly 4% while Taiwan's gained 2%. However, markets remained and will remain volatile amid continued uncertainty around the timing of a potential US-Iran deal and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. According to Enrich Money, markets are expected to remain highly sensitive to geopolitical and macroeconomic developments, with investor attention firmly focused on the evolving US-Iran negotiations and broader diplomatic developments in the Middle East. While expectations of a potential agreement have helped improve risk sentiment and drive a sharp correction in energy prices, investors remain cautious as a definitive breakthrough has yet to materialise.
