The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has confirmed that Mumbai is likely to witness the arrival of the southwest monsoon within the next 48 hours. The weather department forecasts widespread rainfall, thunderstorms and gusty winds across several parts of Maharashtra, with conditions remaining favourable for the monsoon to spread into additional areas. The Regional Meteorological Centre reports that the southwest monsoon has already advanced into more areas of Maharashtra and Telangana, covering the remaining parts of Karnataka and extending into parts of Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Jharkhand and Bihar. The monsoon is expected to move further into the remaining parts of the central Arabian Sea, more areas of Maharashtra, the remaining regions of Telangana and Odisha, and additional parts of Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand and Bihar during the next 48 hours.
The IMD has forecast widespread to fairly widespread rainfall activity over parts of Maharashtra in the coming days due to strengthening westerly winds and the advancing monsoon system. Heavy rainfall at isolated places is expected across the Konkan region between June 22 and June 26. The weather department has forecast widespread rainfall, thunderstorms and heavy rain alerts across several regions through the week. Parts of Madhya Maharashtra are likely to witness thunderstorms accompanied by lightning, gusty winds and moderate to heavy rainfall during the same period. In Marathwada, thunderstorms with lightning and gusty winds along with light to moderate rainfall are expected between June 22 and June 24. Rainfall activity is expected to intensify across large parts of southern, eastern and northeastern India over the coming days, with the revival coming after a brief slowdown in monsoon progress earlier this month due to unfavourable large-scale weather conditions.
According to the IMD forecast, widespread rain is expected over Kerala, coastal Karnataka, Telangana and adjoining parts of south peninsular India, with some areas likely to receive heavy to very heavy showers. In the east, Odisha, Bihar, Jharkhand and parts of West Bengal are expected to witness frequent spells of rain as the monsoon strengthens across the region. Meanwhile, the Northeast is likely to remain the wettest part of the country, with heavy to very heavy rainfall forecast over Assam, Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura. The advance brings optimism, though the season's overall outlook remains worrying due to the strengthening El Nino and the risk of uneven distribution and potential dry spells it brings. The IMD has also noted that heavy to very heavy rainfall (7-20cm) is likely along the west coast, over northeast India and Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim during the week.
Apart from monsoon rain, thunderstorms accompanied by lightning and strong winds are likely across many parts of the country. The IMD has warned of gusty winds reaching 40-60 kmph over parts of central India, eastern states, the northeast and peninsular India. Northwest India, including Delhi, Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan, is also expected to witness intermittent thunderstorm activity over the next few days. Rajasthan may experience thundersqualls with stronger wind speeds, while isolated duststorm activity cannot be ruled out in some western districts. The latest outlook shows more supportive conditions, including an upper-air cyclonic circulation over the Arabian Sea, an east-west shear zone across central India, and the establishment of the Tropical Easterly Jet.
On Monday, the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation issued an Orange warning for Mumbai, citing IMD forecasts that predicted thunderstorms accompanied by lightning, moderate to intense spells of rain and gusty winds of 30-40 kmph at isolated locations over a three-hour period. Several areas of Mumbai, including Bandra East, received pre-monsoon showers along with thunderstorms and lightning on Monday morning. While the rain brought relief from the heat, it also led to waterlogging and traffic snarls in some pockets of the city. The IMD has advised fishermen not to venture into the sea along the South Maharashtra-Goa coast from June 22 to June 26, as squally weather conditions are likely with wind speeds of 40-50 kmph and gusts reaching up to 60 kmph. The weather office cautioned that intense rainfall could trigger localised flooding and waterlogging in low-lying and urban areas, with possible flash floods and disruptions to road, rail, air and ferry services.
