India's private seed companies are holding 20-30 per cent surplus stock for the kharif season, according to Federation of Seed Industry of India (FSII) Chairman Ajai Rana. As reported by PTI, this surplus position has been strengthened by a bumper seed production season for corn, rice, and millets. The government has pegged certified seed availability at 192.43 lakh quintals against a requirement of around 173 lakh quintals, creating a surplus of 11.2 per cent for this kharif season. Rana explained that "We typically plan with 15-20 per cent buffer for returns. This year's strong seed production has further strengthened our position. Many companies are having 20-30 per cent surplus stock."
A recent survey of 1,000 farmers conducted by FSII revealed that 75 per cent had already purchased seed while the remaining 25 per cent were waiting for the monsoon, according to Rana's interview with PTI. This data underscores the urgency of moving stocks from surplus areas to vulnerable districts before the planting window closes. The private sector, which supplies nearly 70 per cent of seeds through a network of over 10 lakh retailers, has built additional buffer stocks over and above the government's surplus figures. Rana noted that "The main issue is grassroots coordination -- moving seed from surplus areas like Mathura and Agra to needy districts in Rajasthan."
Nearly 50 per cent of Indian agriculture remains rain-fed, making the kharif season acutely vulnerable to the El Nino weather pattern this year, as noted by Rana. The government has identified 315 districts across 12 states that are likely to be impacted due to the delayed monsoon this kharif season. Planting is currently delayed in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, parts of Jharkhand, and Bihar, while northern irrigated areas including Punjab, Haryana, and western Uttar Pradesh are over 90 per cent covered and largely unaffected. Rana emphasized that "El Nino is not good news for our agriculture, especially the kharif season, which is the major season. It will particularly impact geographies where irrigation coverage is low."
Rana emphasized that the key challenge is not total availability but timely distribution to the right geographies, particularly short-duration and climate-resilient hybrids in distressed districts. For rice cultivation, the industry has identified Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Bihar, eastern Uttar Pradesh, Bengal, Odisha, and Telangana as areas needing urgent attention, with farmers needing to shift to shorter-duration varieties. Rana recommended that farmers opt for short-duration, high-yielding hybrids, apply fertilizers earlier in the season, and transplant rice nurseries at 25-30 days of age to minimize yield penalties from delayed transplanting. He also noted that "In a drought-prone year, incentives for long-duration fine varieties push more rice cultivation when we should be promoting early-medium varieties like MTU 1010 that suit the conditions."
FSII member companies have mapped vulnerable districts using remote sensing tools and are running real-time monitoring through digital platforms and telephonic surveys. To address spurious seeds during distress years, FSII is actively supporting the government's SATHI initiative for seed traceability, with all member companies having implemented QR codes on seed bags for farmer verification. Rana also noted concerns over Telangana's decision to announce a bonus on fine-grain long-duration rice varieties, calling it contradictory in a drought-prone year. He also addressed misconceptions about hybrid varieties, stating that "In reality, due to hybrid vigour, they often need less. For example, in Punjab/Haryana, hybrids require only 2 bags of urea versus 3-4 bags for non-hybrid varieties, and mature 15 days earlier."
