According to reports from The Hindu BusinessLine, nickel prices are forecast to ease from current elevated levels to average around $17,500 a tonne in 2026, as stated by Australia's Office of the Chief Economist (AOCE) in its Resource and Energy Quarterly. Currently, nickel is quoted at $16,950 a tonne, with prices up over 1.5 per cent in the past week but down 4 per cent in the past month. Research agency BMI has revised up its 2026 nickel price forecast to $17,000/tonne from $16,600/tonne previously, driven by strong H1 price performance despite expectations for prices to moderate over H2 2026.
As reported by The Hindu BusinessLine, Indonesia is considering increasing its 2026 RKAB (Indonesia mining work plan and quota system) mining quota to around 360 million tonnes, up from the current 250-260 million tonnes. While the proposal has not been confirmed by the government, it would represent the first meaningful easing of supply restrictions this year. Ewa Manthey, commodities strategist at ING Think, noted that if the Indonesian government goes for a higher quota, it would mark another shift in its nickel strategy and further cement the country's role as the key driver of global nickel market sentiment, as Indonesia accounts for 60 per cent of the global refined nickel supply.
According to reports from The Hindu BusinessLine, the International Nickel Study Group (INSG) forecasts a relatively modest 32,000-tonne primary nickel deficit in 2026, leaving little room for additional Indonesian supply. BMI expects the nickel market to remain in surplus in 2026, but the excess is now set to narrow to 154,000 tonnes from an estimated 241,000 tonnes in 2025, as supply growth slows more sharply than demand growth. The research agency forecasts refined nickel production to increase by 1.9 per cent over 2025, while pegging consumption growth at 4.5 per cent.
As reported by The Hindu BusinessLine, key downside risks to current prices include any upward revision to Indonesia's 2026 mining quota with an announcement expected in July, as well as any improvement in sulphur and sulphuric acid supply shortages. BMI expects Indonesia to adopt a more flexible policy stance in the coming months to ease concerns over feedstock availability and support production growth, which should weigh on prices relative to H1 levels. The AOCE said sustained growth in global refined nickel supply is expected to contain prices at around $17,000 a tonne to 2031, though emerging supply risks raise the possibility of a tighter market balance.
