US Vice President JD Vance has delivered a rare public rebuke to Israeli critics of the US-Iran peace deal, arguing that military force alone cannot guarantee security. Vance specifically criticized Israel's far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, both of whom have strongly opposed the US-Iran agreement. As reported by Reuters, Vance said, "I guess my response to them would be: What is your exact proposal? You're a country of nine million people. You can't just kill your way out of solving every single national security problem that you have." He further added that Israel should "give a little bit of credit to the United States of America, which I think has been an incredible partner for the Israeli government for a long time." According to The New York Times, Vance reminded Israeli leaders that "Donald J Trump is the only head of state in the entire world who is sympathetic to the nation of Israel at this moment in time, and he happens to be the head of state of the world's superpower."
Oil prices turned volatile once again after recent comments from US Vice President JD Vance raised concerns over the stability of the Middle East peace deal. Brent crude was down 0.65% at $79.33 a barrel, after touching $79.85 level, while WTI crude fell 0.46% to $75.50. The move came after Vance warned Israel against carrying out further attacks on Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon, prompting doubts over the durability of the accord. Pointing to Israel's criticism of the peace deal, Vance said, "I find this whole freakout in Israel a little bit odd because I think that it comes from a place of mistrust, and I think that America has earned the trust of that region of the world." In earlier sessions, Brent crude had fallen to its lowest level since March 2, the first trading day after the initial US-Israeli strikes on Iran, while US benchmark WTI crude also touched its lowest level since March 4.
Iranian crude oil has begun moving out of the country for the first time in two months, with at least two supertankers tracked exiting the US Navy blockade perimeter just days before Washington and Tehran are set to formally sign their memorandum of understanding. According to TankerTrackers.com, at least two National Iranian Tanker Company (NITC) VLCC supertankers named DIONA (9569695) and HERO2 (9362073) have exited the US Navy blockade perimeter carrying a combined total of 3.8 million barrels of Iranian crude oil between them. The blockade, in place since the US and Israel launched strikes on Iran on February 28, had choked off Iranian oil exports and contributed to the broader Strait of Hormuz shipping crisis that has disrupted global energy markets. TankerTrackers.com also flagged a third vessel approaching the cordon: NITC's STREAM (9569633) is approaching the blockade line from the EEZ of Pakistan, where she spent the past 7 weeks waiting to enter Iran. This represents Iran's first crude oil exports in two months and demonstrates the immediate impact of the US-Iran peace deal.
Under the 14-point memorandum of understanding signed by the United States and Iran, Tehran has agreed to allow toll-free passage through the Strait of Hormuz during a 60-day negotiation period, with the agreement also aiming to restore traffic through the waterway to full capacity within 30 days. The accord is binding on the allies of both countries in the Middle East and specifically applies to Lebanon, where Israel has been conducting air and ground operations against Hezbollah. Goldman Sachs expects Gulf oil exports to return to pre-war levels by the end of July, with crude production recovering by October. According to the bank, restoring exports to pre-war levels could be achieved through a 13 million barrel-per-day increase in Hormuz flows from current levels, taking them to around 70% of pre-war volumes. However, BNP Paribas does not expect oil prices to return to levels seen before the conflict, with the bank viewing $75 per barrel as a "durable floor for the foreseeable future" due to continuing supply losses and stronger demand.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi confirmed on Tuesday that a new round of negotiations between the United States and Iran would begin in Switzerland on Friday, with the nuclear file to be taken up in the final stage of those talks. As reported by Al Arabiya, Friday would also mark the official start of the Memorandum of Understanding, aligning with earlier US statements that the deal would be formally inked in Geneva on June 19. The foreign minister confirmed that the nuclear issue would be addressed in the concluding phase of the negotiations, signalling that Tehran views the nuclear dossier as the most consequential and complex element of the broader framework being negotiated over the coming 60-day window. Vice President JD Vance and US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are expected to meet Araghchi and Iranian Parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf in Geneva on Friday, alongside Qatari and Pakistani mediators. The MoU, signed electronically by President Donald Trump, Vice President JD Vance, and Iranian Parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, establishes a 60-day ceasefire framework during which both sides will negotiate the specifics of a final agreement. The deal also requires the United States and its partners to develop a $300-billion plan to support Iran's recovery.
The Iran conflict has disrupted global crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies, with at least 1 billion barrels of crude oil and refined products lost from Middle East producers including Iraq, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, and Iran itself. According to reports from The Hindu BusinessLine, up to 20% of global LNG supply is trapped in the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman. Despite these disruptions, benchmark Brent crude futures have remained under $100 per barrel due to strategic inventory releases and reduced Chinese imports by the world's biggest crude importer. In early trading following the deal announcement, crude oil prices fell by more than 4% to their lowest levels in over three months, as reported by Axios. However, it will likely take several weeks for tanker flow to be restored, according to Morgan Stanley analysts, who expect 50% of production back by September and 80% by December, slightly faster than before. Around 500 ships are in the backlog waiting to pass through the strait, according to the Financial Times.
