Gold prices experienced a sharp reversal, crashing over $100 per troy ounce and hitting an intraday low of $4,612.54/oz in international markets, representing a 3% intraday loss as Trump's address to the nation shattered hopes of a ceasefire in the US-Iran war. The MCX gold rate today opened downward at ₹1,52,490 and touched an intraday low of ₹1,50,480 per 10 gm, losing over ₹3,000 within a few minutes of the Opening Bell. Currently, the gold price on the Indian bourse is trading around ₹1,50,750 per 10 gm level, logging an intraday loss of around ₹3,000 per 10 gm. This dramatic decline represents a significant retreat from gold's previous surge to nearly two-week highs when spot gold had risen 0.7% to $4,700.41 per ounce and U.S. gold futures gained 1.1% to $4,729.80. Despite the sharp decline, bullion is still on track for about a 2.4% weekly rise after hitting its highest since March 19 on Wednesday before sliding more than 4% on Thursday in response to Trump's comments.
U.S. President Donald Trump's address to the nation at 9 pm on Wednesday (0100 GMT on Thursday) shattered hopes of a near-term ceasefire in the US-Iran war, with Trump signaling that the conflict could wind down within two to three weeks but without making a deal a prerequisite. The administration has shifted focus to degrading Iran's naval capabilities and missile reserves before reducing military actions and transitioning to diplomacy. Iran has also suggested it is willing to negotiate under specific demands, with the most concrete signal to date that a near-term de-escalation is under consideration. Global equity and bond markets had previously jumped on speculation of potential de-escalation in the Middle East conflict that has driven the biggest one-month increase in global oil prices in history, but Trump's latest remarks have reversed this optimism. Oil prices climbed nearly 8% on Thursday after Trump said the U.S. would continue to strike Iran and was nearing "completion of its main strategic objectives" in the conflict, disappointing investors who had hoped for clearer signals of an end to hostilities.
The precious metals complex showed mixed performance with spot silver down 5.8% to $70.80, having earlier dropped over 7%, while spot platinum fell 2.3% to $1,918.60 and palladium shed 0.9% to $1,459.31. The U.S. dollar's strength and rising crude oil prices have emerged as key factors pressuring gold, with the 10-year yield falling more than 4 basis points to approximately 4.30% on the session. The precious metals rally had previously reflected investor concerns about the potential recession risk posed by the Iran conflict, with the 10-year yield falling more than 4 basis points to approximately 4.30% as reported by The Wall Street Journal. The February JOLTS data showed 6.882 million job openings, down from 7.240 million in the prior month, signaling continued cooling in the labor market. "It's been the case since the start of the war that gold prices are negatively correlated to oil prices," said Bernard Dahdah, an analyst at Natixis, noting that after Trump's comments, oil prices went up by 6%-7%, leading to inflationary concerns that drive markets to believe the Fed wouldn't cut rates.
Traders have almost completely priced out any chance of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut this year, as higher energy prices threaten to feed into broader inflation, according to Reuters. Before the war in the Middle East began, there were expectations of two rate cuts for this year. The 10-year yield fell to around 4.30–4.31%, down roughly three to five basis points on the session, with Powell noting that long-term inflation expectations remain "in check" despite ongoing Middle East uncertainty. Expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will hold rates have gone up, while bets for a December reduction have fallen to 14% from around 25% before Trump's address, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Markets are pricing in less than one rate cut by year-end, and yield curves remain steep, suggesting investors have yet to fully embrace a downturn scenario. The February JOLTS data showed 6.882 million job openings, down from 7.240 million in the prior month, signaling continued cooling in the labor market.
Brazil's central bank significantly increased its gold holdings, doubling its gold holdings in 2025, making the metal the second-largest component of its foreign exchange reserves after the U.S. dollar, according to its annual report released on Tuesday, as reported by Reuters. This strategic move reflects growing institutional confidence in gold as a portfolio diversification tool amid global economic uncertainties. The March nonfarm payrolls report is scheduled for Friday morning, while consumer inflation expectations surged to a seven-month high in March according to survey data released Tuesday, adding to the complex economic backdrop facing policymakers. Despite the current decline, Nikos Tzabouras, senior market analyst at Jefferies-owned Tradu.com, noted that "structural demand drivers remain intact and the precious metal could yet reclaim its bullish bias to reach new all-time highs."
